In the matter if Week 11’s crucial game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, you might be inclined to take the Chiefs, because… well, just because. The two-time defending Super Bowl champs currently sport a 9-0 record despite the fact that they have no rational business in that exalted frame. Andy Reid’s team has the worst point differential (+58) of any 9-0 team in pro football history, and they have the fifth-lowest DVOA of any 9-0 team. DVOA at this point goes back to 1979, which gives you a pretty decent historical reference.
(The worst 9-0 team in DVOA history, by the way, was the 2013 Chiefs, in Andy Reid’s first season as the team’s head coach. Never let it be said that Coach Reid can’t devise order out of chaos). The Bills, on the other hand, are trying to pummel their way through a brutally competitive AFC with an 8-2 record, which is quite a bump for head coach Sean McDermott and his staff. 2024 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Bills as they swapped out a too-old secondary and tried to give Josh Allen new playmakers in the passing game. So far, the results have been mixed on the field, but the results are impressive in the standings. Legendary coach Bill Parcells liked to say that you are what your record says you are, but these are two overachievers at the top of the mountain.
One thing the Bills have done under first-year full-time offensive coordinator Joe Brady is to create enough around Allen so Allen won’t have to carry the entire offense on his own. They’ve done this in a few ways. First, while you may think of the Bills as a pass-heavy team where it’s all on Allen as it is in the run game, Buffalo has run the ball at a 46.7% rate this season, not too off from last season’s 46.5%. And this run game can be far more effective than you think. The 2023 Bills led the NFL in Rushing EPA (+45.5; the San Francisco 49ers ranked second at +12.1), and the 2024 Bills rank third behind the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Commanders at +25.2. Allen is the force multiplier in the run game, but James Cook is always good for a few explosive plays.
Another way the Bills have maximized Allen’s efforts is with more 12 personnel -one running back, two tight ends, and two receivers. Over the last three seasons, Buffalo has gone from 4% 12 personnel in 2022, to 17% in 2023, to 19% in 2024. That number could be affected by the fact that tight end Dalton Kincaid will be out with a knee injury, but Brady has other ways to put the beef in his offense.
Brady and the Bills are using six offensive linemen at by far the highest rate in the NFL. On run plays, they’ve lined up in 6OL personnel on 64 attempts; the Patriots rank second with 39. Buffalo has gained 308 yards and scored two touchdowns on those attempts. And nobody is throwing the ball with more linemen on the field than Allen, who has completed 14 of 25 attempts for 264 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 96.7.
Against Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, the mastermind more responsible than anybody else for Kansas City’s undefeated record, these things will all be important, both in frequency and efficiency. Going back to his days with the Eagles, where he learned pressure packages from the all-time legend Jim Johnson, Spags has always been diabolical and different in the ways he brings heat to the quarterback.
This season, the Chiefs are blitzing on 34.5% of their defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the league behind the Minnesota Vikings and the Denver Broncos. And their third-down blitz rate of 52% is the NFL’s highest. Frequently, the Chiefs will send their defensive backs on those extra pressure packages with base man coverage behind them.
#ChiefsKingdom vs. #BillsMafia ! Steve Spagnuolo loves to bring his DBs on pressure packages. @GregCosell maps out how the Chiefs were able to set up this creative blitz a few weeks back against the Raiders. @DariusJButler | @GregCosellpic.twitter.com/FX8S1lzJLT — NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 16, 2024 That said, the Chiefs are vulnerable in coverage when they do blitz, and Allen has been impossible against blitzes this season.
When sending five or more pass-rushers, Spagnuolo’s defense has allowed 55 completions on 89 attempts for 467 yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 84.8. Not horrible, but when facing Allen, they’ll need to be better or ditch the heavy blitz plan entirely. Because against five or more pass-rushers this season, Allen has completed 41 of 72 passes for 654 yards, nine touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 127.0. If you play man behind the blitz, and Allen has time to put his man-beaters in place, you are toast.
The Chiefs blitz a lot — 34.5% of the time, third-most in the league. But Spags might want to dial that down Sunday. Josh Allen has 9TD/0INT against 5+ rushers this season, and no team throws the ball with 6OL more than the Bills. Plus, Allen does ridiculous stuff like this. pic.twitter.com/fAiS1BJ58Z — Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) November 16, 2024 Both sides are well aware of this challenge.
“He’s a game wrecker, one of the best, if not the best, interior D-lineman in the game right now,” Allen said Wednesday of Chiefs mega-pressure maven Chris Jones, who comes into this game with four sacks and 39 total pressures. “You pair that up with some of their DBs and linebackers, they’re flying all over the field… We’re gonna have our hands full. It’s a very good unit that we’re about to face, and we’re just trying to try and have a good week of practice and go up there next week on Sunday.”
Spagnuolo has all the respect in the world for Allen, which makes you wonder of the plan might be different for No. 17. “Listen, this quarterback is – I can’t – there aren’t enough superlatives to say for my – the extent of my knowledge and words is not good enough to do him justice because he’s tough, And then, they put a back [James Cook] back there that can run it. I mean, we have to continue to play the run well and then there’s all the other stuff, but what they add to it is the quarterback can run and he runs like a fullback. It’s not doing this [motions hands to the right and left], I mean he can [motions hand in a straight line] so we know what we’re in for. We’ve gone against him quite a bit, but [I have] a lot of respect for him, and we have our work cut out for us.”
Now, if Spags wants to reverse the process, drop more defenders into coverage, and rush three… that might be the better option. Allen has completed five of 15 passes this season against three or fewer rushers for 65 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 59.7. That’s all well and good, but when it’s Josh Allen against a three-man rush, he’s also just as inclined to wreck your light fronts with his legs. The good news when you’re facing Josh Allen: You can drop extra defenders into coverage and mess with his head.
The bad news when you’re facing Josh Allen, and you drop extra defenders into coverage to mess with his head: If you do that, he can light you up as a runner. pic.twitter.com/5qgsqlhOlK — Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) November 16, 2024 The matchups are set for one of the most important games of the 2024 NFL season, and the battle between the Chiefs’ weaponized blitzes and Josh Allen’s ability to beat them could make all the difference.
