The Chicago Cubs want to make a big splash at the MLB trade deadline, and that could involve dealing a top-100 prospect like outfielder Owen Caissie. Caissie has been frequently mentioned by insiders as a likely prospect on the move by the end of July. Chicago needs starting pitching above all else if they hope to contend with the Dodgers for the National League pennant. Yet, trading Caissie may not be in the cards thanks to a recent report from Ken Rosenthal.

Per Rosenthal, the Cubs may have to prepare themselves for Kyle Tucker’s eventual exit…to Tampa Bay. Yes, you read that correctly. Cubs fans have done everything in their power to recruit Tucker to stay in Wrigleyville. However, the 28-year-old Scott Boras client was always going to test free agency. When he does, the Cubs will make their pitch – but it’ll be tough to beat the Rays if they’re interested in spending this kind of dough.

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Kyle Tucker’s interest in the Rays could haunt the Cubs

If the Rays ownership sale goes through, with Jacksonville developer Patrick Zalupski confirmed as majority owner, they could have a lot more money to spend in free agency than usual, as Ken Rosenthal explains.

“The thought might not be as preposterous as it sounds, depending upon how much Zalupski is willing to spend on players after plunking $1.7 billion or so for the team…Tucker, 28, is a native of Tampa,” Rosenthal wrote.

Of course, all of this would require the Rays to spend more money on a free agent than they ever have in the past. Tampa was once involved in the Freddie Freeman chase, and offered the now-Dodger between $140 million and $150 million. They also handed Wander Franco a $181 million deal, which may soon be void if he is unable to return to the United States.

The Cubs can’t afford to trade Owen Caissie

Tucker would cost close to triple the value of Freeman or Franco, which could push the Rays out of their comfort zone. However, it does prove to the Cubs just how much competition they’ll have for Tucker, which brings me to my next point.

Trading Caissie for starting pitching in an attempt to go all-in this season would be an exciting maneuver for the fanbase. However, it also comes with significant risk. If Tucker leaves, who better to replace him than an MLB-ready corner outfielder with a red-hot bat? That’s exactly what Caissie is at this stage of his development as a prospect. In Triple-A Iowa, he is raking, with a .961 OPS and 19 home runs. Caissie is ready for the major leagues whenever the Cubs – or another interested party – will have him.

That’s what makes sending him away so risky. Sure, the 2025 Cubs will be better for it, but what about next year? Re-signing Tucker won’t be easy, and unless Jed Hoyer knows something we don’t about the Ricketts’ family’s willingness to invest this winter, dealing Tucker’s most logical replacement isn’t a good idea.