Jurickson Profar’s 80-game PED suspension will be over soon. Well, not that soon — the Braves have played 67 games and he had not yet been suspended for the first four, so there’s a bit more to go. But, safe to say, things have not gone well in his absence.
It’s not that the Braves didn’t have depth, or the ability to add depth. It’s just that all that depth ended up incredibly useless and actively detrimental, for the most part. Jarred Kelenic managed -0.4 fWAR in 65 PAs before being sent down to Gwinnett. Sure, he was underhitting his xwOBA by a monumental amount, but it’s not like that xwOBA was good, either. Bryan De La Cruz hit -0.4 fWAR in just 50 PAs, somehow worse all-around than Kelenic (with another large xwOBA underperformance). Yeah, those guys clearly didn’t work out.
Alex Verdugo, who was signed after the season started and took time getting up to speed at Gwinnett, has been miserable to watch, and only marginally better. He now also has -0.4 fWAR, albeit across 166 PAs. He was the “strong” side of a platoon, but hasn’t started either of the last two games against right-handed starters, so maybe he’s on his way out as well. In his defense, Verdugo has a reasonable xwOBA (that he’s underhitting, join the club). But, I can’t stand his brand of baseball, so, whatever.
Eli White has positive 0.2 fWAR in 158 PAs. That’s a vast improvement over the other guys. He’s had his share of failures — some very dramatic and inexplicable — but has positive defense and baserunning. His xwOBA isn’t horrid, but it’s not good, and surprise surprise, he’s also underhitting it.
The Braves don’t appear to have other options they care about — Jose Azocar is on the roster but doesn’t do anything other than pinch-run sometimes.
Which brings us back to Profar. He was good last year. He was really bad before then. I wasn’t a fan of his deal, both in a vacuum and because I was uneasy with it potentially signaling what eventually came to pass from an offensive approach standpoint, but the Braves are stuck with him, his remaining salary, and most likely, both, at this point. The Braves also need all the help they can get if they’re not going to turn this season into Baseball Lab 2025 and actually try to win enough games to go somewhere, so Profar could be part of the answer. But, will he? That’s for you to discuss. I don’t know how much of his 2024 was PED-related. Some? All? None? That’s the big question, but I don’t think we can do anything but speculate.
Daily Notes
Record: 29-38
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .343 / .306 (Season rank: 16th | 11th)
Yesterday’s opponent wOBA and xwOBA: .351 / .351 (Season rank: 13th | 11th)
Yesterday’s homers: 2
Yesterday’s homers allowed: 1
Record when out-xwOBAing: 20-16 (League: 737-267)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 9-22 (League: 267-737)
Record when out-wOBAing: 25-7 (League: 842-163)
Record when out-wOBAed: 4-31 (League: 163-842)
Record when outhomering: 15-7 (League: 539-156)
Record when outhomered: 5-19 (League: 156-539)
