Over the first 14 weeks of the NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense forced just 10 turnovers. In the last three games —an intense 11-day stretch— they’ve amassed nine, marking a dramatic turnaround for the unit. The Chiefs have a +10 turnover differential (special teams is credited with one of those 10) over that stretch. Is it any surprise they’ve won all three matchups by a combined margin of 41 points?
The story of the season for Kansas City has been their efficiency at winning one-score games (they’ve won 11 such games in 2024). That’s largely a consequence of having an offense that lacks explosive plays and a defense that had up until recently struggled to create turnovers. It’s a challenge to win in today’s NFL with a methodical offense that is seldom afforded extra possessions. Should this trend continue into the postseason, it significantly expands the possibilities for the back-to-back champion Chiefs.
The tide began to turn in Kansas City’s Week 15 matchup with the Cleveland Browns. After managing just one takeaway across two tightly contested games against division rivals —the Raiders and Chargers— the Chiefs exploded for five turnovers at Huntington Bank Field. Quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw a total of four interceptions on the day. The fifth takeaway came when linebacker Leo Chenal punched the ball out of running back Nick Chubb’s right arm (later recovered by Drue Tranquill). That dominant showing set the tone for the game and has since sparked an overall shift in what’s become a momentum-shifting defense.
The best way to help a struggling offense is by supplying it with more opportunities. In the possessions created by those nine turnovers, the Chiefs have scored four times, resulting in seven points against Cleveland, 10 at home versus the Texans, and seven in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day —a total of 24 points. To put that into perspective, turnover-generated points have made up 60% of the 41-point combined margin of victory the past three weeks. Patrick Mahomes and company are capitalizing on turnovers at a 45% clip. Come January, this team will be a tough out with home-field advantage and extra chances to score.
In the last two championship runs, turnovers played a crucial role in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victories. Kansas City finished with a +4 turnover differential in 2022 and +2 in 2023. While the Chiefs scored just three points off turnovers during their title defense last season, they were, however, able to prevent two opponent scores with takeaways in or near the end zone (the AFC Championship Game with the Baltimore Ravens). The Chiefs have either been neutral or positive in the turnover category in all three championship campaigns.
Kansas City’s pass rush has been bolstered by the return of defensive end Charles Omenihu, while cornerback Joshua Williams has helped stabilize a once-vulnerable cornerback group. Better coverage on the outside, coupled with more pressure from the front four has allowed more aggressive play on the back end. Six of the nine turnovers during the three-game stretch have come from Chiefs’ defensive backs. Rookie safety Jaden Hicks has been a revelation in the absence of Chamarri Conner, recording interceptions in each of the past two games alongside fellow safeties Bryan Cook and Justin Reid.
With the No. 1 seed locked up, the Chiefs now have a chance to get healthier on the defensive side of the ball. Conner has missed the past two games due to a concussion he sustained in Week 15, while star defensive tackle Chris Jones missed the Christmas Day game with a Grade 1 calf strain. Another defensive tackle, Mike Pennel, came out of the Pittsburgh game with a hamstring injury, but he later returned to action. Kansas City now has 23 days between meaningful games, and all three should be ready to go for the Divisional Round of the playoffs the third weekend of January. Having a full complement of healthy and well-rested defensive players is a great way to try and keep the turnover train rolling.
