What doesn’t come out in the wash comes out in the rinse, Cubs fans. That will be the case when everybody looks back at why the Cubs didn’t roll the dice on Walker Buehler and the easily affordable one-year pillow contract he signed with the Boston Red Sox. Given where the Cubs are regarding financial flexibility, how much sense it makes to land an arm on a one-year deal to pursue Kyle Tucker; the ultimate goal this season is the playoffs, and banking on this much upside in your starting rotation has ramifications that are inexcusable if it doesn’t work out.
The Cubs signed Matt Boyd to a two-year deal earlier in the offseason. So, having two players form two-fifths of your starting rotation and hoping they perform at their peak after recent serious surgeries is not how team president Jed Hoyer will approach this. Hoyer may need to get the Cubs back to the postseason to stay with the team long-term, but he isn’t that desperate.
When push comes to shove, the Cubs still have seven top-100 prospects that can help get nearly any deal done if it boils down to needing to make another splash. With the names flying off the board now in free agency, it appears evident that the rumors of Hoyer still shopping in the trade market will have to be what comes to fruition, but at the end of the day, it won’t be a feat that proves impossible.
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Dylan Cease, Luis Castillo, and Pablo Lopez are the three big names rumored to be available via trade. All three would significantly help the Cubs and could be had on a price tag that should be affordable to Hoyer. Cease has one year at $13 million, while Castillo has three years with a vesting option for a fourth but comes with an AAV just north of $24 million. Lopez has three years at just under $22 million.
Hypothetically, Buehler made sense on a one-year contract so the Cubs could have money freed up for Tucker, so landing Cease via trade might be the more appealing route. At the same time, you’ll need another starter next season because assuming top prospect Cade Horton, after a lost 2024, will leap forward and be ready in 2026 is just as risky as signing Buehler would have been.
Lopez had a down year but still managed a 3.2 WAR on the season. The Cubs landing him via trade likely pushes them to the 90-win realm, given how consistent he’s been for the past five seasons. This mark should be good enough to take the NL Central after the Brewers and Cardinals have taken steps back this winter.
Lopez’s contract keeps the team nearly $30 million below the luxury tax, which is still more than enough for a closer, bench bat, and to take on another contract at the trade deadline. Taking on the risk of Buehler while putting yourself in need of a starter next winter again isn’t ideal. However, keeping Lopez’s ace potential for less than $22 million per season is something the Cubs should target, as well as having their sights locked on Tucker long-term.
