Japanese superstars have been a driving force in MLB free agency in recent years, most notably when Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto joined the Dodgers last winter, whose combined contracts totaled north of $1 billion. This offseason’s prized addition from Japan, however, won’t command nearly as hefty a price tag—making the bidding more accessible for all 30 MLB teams.
That rising star is 23-year-old Roki Sasaki, who is poised to make his dream of playing at the highest level a reality. Unlike many Japanese players who wait until they’re older to move stateside—when they can secure a major-league contract—Sasaki will be joining MLB at a younger age. Due to MLB rules, as Sasaki is under 25, he can only sign a minor-league deal funded by the team’s international bonus pool. This situation is reminiscent of Shohei Ohtani’s entry at age 23, when he signed with the Angels for $2.3 million and remained under team control for six years before his recent high-profile free agency.
In essence, Sasaki’s availability gives every team a chance to land an elite pitcher at a team-friendly rate through the end of the decade. On the mound, his stats rival those of the greatest Japanese players who have come before him, showcasing a level of talent that has scouts and fans buzzing.
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Roki Sasaki — 69 starts, 2.02 ERA, 0.883 WHIP, 11.4 K/9
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — 172 starts, 1.82 ERA, 0.935 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
Shohei Ohtani — 85 starts, 2.52 ERA, 1.076 WHIP, 10.3 K/9
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The scouting report is just as eye-popping as the numbers. Per Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com:
The 6-foot-2 Sasaki is a future frontline starter with the potential to have three plus power pitches. He can run his fastball up to 102 mph, a four-seamer that averaged almost 99 mph in 2023, an average that did dip to 96.8 mph in 2024. He complements the heater with an absolutely filthy splitter (88.2 mph avg in 2024) that generated a whiff rate north of 57 percent this past season. He kills spin with it, and it falls off the table. His slider (83.6 mph avg in ‘24) also misses a lot of bats, with a 40.7 percent whiff rate last year.
While Roki Sasaki’s fastball velocity dipped this season, resulting in a slight decline in strikeouts and a modestly elevated ERA, his undeniable talent at just 23 years old makes him a tantalizing prospect for MLB teams. Had he waited to be posted as a full-fledged free agent, Sasaki would likely have been pursued as intensely as Yoshinobu Yamamoto was last offseason.
The Braves, of course, were not involved in the Yamamoto negotiations, but with Roki Sasaki, there’s absolutely no reason they shouldn’t be trying everything they can to get him to sign in Atlanta.
However, convincing Sasaki to choose Atlanta may be challenging. Japanese players often gravitate toward the West Coast, which provides proximity to home. As if the Dodgers really needed any more of an advantage, they can also offer him the opportunity to play with two of his countrymates and the chance to compete for championships every year.
The Dodgers seem poised as the frontrunners to land Sasaki. They’re one of the few teams with remaining international bonus pool money, allowing them to offer a slightly higher contract. The Braves, by contrast, have no available bonus pool funds. However, if Sasaki waits until December 2nd to post, the bonus pool for all teams will reset, leveling the playing field and opening the door for widespread competition.
It all will likely come down to Sasaki’s personal preferences, which sources have told The Athletic are “stability, lifestyle, comfort and a team’s track record with player development.”
Few teams can rival the Braves’ stability and history of player development, giving them a potential edge over others. Still, with numerous teams likely in the mix, Sasaki’s final decision could hinge as much on off-field considerations as on-field ones. For now, the whole league is on notice, waiting to see which organization will win over Japan’s next pitching phenom.
