The atmosphere surrounding the New York Mets as they report to spring training in Port St. Lucie is a fascinating blend of calculated optimism and residual trauma. After a 2025 campaign that saw the team miss the postseason by a razor-thin margin, the focus has shifted entirely to the stability—or lack thereof—of the starting rotation. While the front office has been busy adding firepower in the form of Freddy Peralta and preparing for a full season of the young phenom Nolan McLean, the true trajectory of the 2026 Mets will be determined by two men who have transitioned from certain aces to the league’s most intriguing wild cards: Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea.

To understand the stakes of the upcoming season, one must first revisit the frustration of 2025. For Kodai Senga, the year began like a fever dream of dominance. Across his first 13 starts, Senga was not just the best pitcher on the Mets; he was arguably the best pitcher in Major League Baseball, pitching to a staggering 1.47 ERA. He was a force of nature, confounding hitters with his signature “ghost fork” and a fastball that seemed to jump through the zone. However, the season took a tragic turn on a routine play at first base. A high throw from Pete Alonso forced Senga into an awkward, athletic leap that resulted in a severe hamstring injury. It was a moment that fundamentally altered the Mets’ season and Senga’s career trajectory.

When Senga eventually returned to the mound, the “fine-tuned sports car” was clearly out of alignment. While his strikeout and walk rates remained somewhat respectable, his ability to keep the ball in the yard completely evaporated. Prior to the injury, Senga’s home run per nine rate was an elite 0.49. After his return, that number skyrocketed to 1.82—a more than fourfold increase. He was in a constant, visible struggle to find his mechanics, leading to a frustrating stretch where he gave up homers in seven of his final eight outings. By the end of the year, the man who had been the de facto ace was working through his issues in Triple-A, leaving the Mets’ front office with a difficult decision this winter. Despite rumors that the team shopped him during the offseason, the sheer upside of a healthy Senga proved too valuable to give away for mere salary relief. At $28 million over the next two seasons, Senga remains a high-stakes flyer on a pitcher who, when mechanically sound, is nearly unhittable.

Parallel to Senga’s mechanical struggle was the psychological odyssey of Sean Manaea. Manaea’s 2025 season is a case study in how underlying excellence can be obscured by specific, high-leverage failures. Following an unbelievable 2024 where he adopted a Chris Sale-inspired arm slot and earned a three-year, $75 million contract, Manaea entered last year as the team’s veteran anchor. An early oblique injury sidelined him until July, but when he returned, the “stuff” was arguably better than ever. Statistically, Manaea was performing at an elite level under the hood. His strikeout rate of 28.5% and walk rate of 4.6% would have been career-best marks. If he had reached the required innings to qualify, his strikeout-minus-walk rate of 24% would have placed him fourth in all of baseball, trailing only the titans of the game: Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skenes.

So, how did a pitcher with those metrics end up with an ERA near seven in August and September? The answer, according to insiders and analysts, lies in a combination of mental lapses and a loss of faith in his arsenal. The home run ball, much like with Senga, became his undoing. Manaea’s home-run-to-fly-ball rate sat at nearly 20%—double his career average. The collapse was characterized by “lazy pitches” in high-stress situations. Against the Guardians in August, a brilliant scoreless start was derailed in the sixth inning when Manaea threw what was described as the “laziest change-up you’ll ever see” to Gabriel Arias, resulting in a crushing three-run homer. This pattern repeated against the Brewers and Nationals, where single innings of mechanical drift or mental fatigue turned quality outings into statistical disasters. By the end of the year, Manaea had become a “two-pitch” guy, completely abandoning a change-up that had once been a primary weapon.

The road to redemption in 2026 is being paved by a new architectural force in the Mets’ dugout: pitching coach Justin Willard. Willard has taken a proactive, deeply personal approach to rehabilitating his two wild cards. In January, he flew to Tampa to meet with Manaea, observing bullpen sessions and engaging in a “direct-challenge” dialogue that Manaea specifically requested. The goal is a return to the 2024 mechanics—cleaning up an arm slot that had become too extreme and sidearm, which had contributed to the loss of his change-up. Manaea has been vocal about his disappointment in 2025, acknowledging the pressure of the big contract and the weight of the fans’ expectations. For Willard, the “proof is in the pudding” regarding Manaea’s durability and work ethic, leading many to believe that Manaea actually possesses a higher floor for 2026 than his Japanese counterpart.

Senga’s rehabilitation has followed a similar, high-tech path. Both pitchers have been working extensively with Tread Athletics, a cutting-edge pitching lab that focuses on movement efficiency and biometric data. For Senga, the focus hasn’t been on changing his arsenal, but on restoring his status as a “power pitcher.” The meetings with Willard in North Carolina emphasized maximizing velocity and ensuring that his general health allows him to deploy his fastball with the intensity required to set up the ghost fork. Early spring reports from manager Carlos Mendoza and veteran catcher Austin Barnes suggest that Senga is once again “intentional” with his heat, looking like the physical specimen that originally captivated New York.

Despite the renewed focus, the Mets are remaining realistic. President of Baseball Operations David Stearns has stated that it would be “foolish” to count on Senga for 30 starts. Projection models are equally cautious, with most agreeing on a 19-to-20 start expectation for Senga, likely totaling around 110 innings. Manaea, however, is projected for a much heavier workload. With a career defined by durability—notwithstanding the oblique issue—Manaea is being tipped for 30 starts and upwards of 165 innings. If he can maintain his elite strikeout rates while trusting his refined change-up, a 200-strikeout season is well within reach.

The beauty of the 2026 Mets, however, is that they no longer need Senga or Manaea to be flawless to be successful. The addition of Freddy Peralta and the emergence of Nolan McLean have created a buffer zone. Last year, the rotation was carried by David Peterson and Tylor Megill, who were forced to post every five days regardless of performance. This year, Senga and Manaea are effectively the “deadline acquisitions” that arrived early. They are middle-to-back-end arms in a six-man rotation who have the talent to outperform their roles significantly. With a farm system teeming with depth—including Jonah Tong, Christian Scott, and Tobias Myers—the Mets finally have the “coverage” to weather a storm if their wild cards falter.

Ultimately, the 2026 New York Mets are making a massive gamble on the human element of the game. They are betting that mechanical tweaks, psychological resets, and high-tech labs can overcome the entropy of 2025. If Kodai Senga can keep the ball in the yard and Sean Manaea can eliminate the “lazy pitch,” the Mets will possess a rotation that is as deep as it is dangerous. As the first games of spring approach, the eyes of the baseball world are on Port St. Lucie. The wild cards have been dealt, the bets have been placed, and the New York Mets are ready to see if their engineering of a pitching redemption will result in a championship hand.