The Green Bay Packers are hosting this year’s draft and have the 23rd pick. The Packers will surely call a name to the stage in the first round, right?

But what if the board doesn’t favor them?

We’ve examined multiple ways the Packers could approach the draft. So, what is the worst-case scenario for them? To understand how things could go wrong, we must first examine Green Bay’s needs.

Green Bay’s primary concerns are wide receiver, edge rusher, cornerback, and interior defensive line. They could also consider adding depth along the offensive line, safety, and linebacker positions. However, the Packers don’t have to address those needs with the 23rd-overall selection.

By signing Aaron Banks at left guard, the Packers prioritized the interior. Therefore, they don’t need to go offensive line with their first selection. Green Bay also brought in cornerback Nate Hobbes to fill a role in the secondary. If Jaire Alexander returns, the Packers no longer need a corner.

That leaves the defensive line as Green Bay’s biggest need. The Packers want to consistently get to the quarterback rushing four guys. Last year’s group wasn’t good enough to generate pressure without blitzing, and none of them eclipsed double-digit sacks. The Packers took steps to try and fix that by bringing in a new defensive line coach. But a talented edge rusher at the top of the draft would also go a long way.

So, looking at the draft board, the worst-case scenario would be if the best edge rushers get taken and the top interior defensive linemen are gone. That would mean that Mike Green, Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, and Donovan Ezeiruaku would be gone by the time the Packers have to select. It also assumes that cornerbacks Will Johnson and Jahdae Barron are also gone. If one of those two is available, the Packers should sprint to the podium to announce their name.

The Packers would loathe to see guys like Josh Simmons, Jihaad Campbell, Kelvin Banks Jr., and Malaki Starks fall to 23. They would also hate to see Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan, and Luther Burden taken early on.

That leaves the Packers in a position where the top guys on the board will be safeties, running backs, and tackles – arguably the positions the Packers need the least. You can make the case for James Pearce out of Tennessee, but his character concerns likely mean Green Bay passes on him.

At 23, the Packers would be reaching for fan favorites like Trey Amos, Jayden Higgins, and Derrick Harmon. But Gutenkunst typically doesn’t care about the perceived value of his picks and takes the top player on his board like we’ve seen him do in years past with Jordan Morgan and Quay Walker.

The names available, the positions the Packers need, and the value of those players at pick 23 would just not be there for the Packers. I’m all for taking the best player available, but the Packers just don’t need a player like Starks or Campbell on their team, especially when there are other needs where players could be much more impactful.

To me, it seems most obvious that the Packers would trade back in this case. Let someone else who needs a safety leapfrog the Vikings to take Starks, Omarion Hampton, or whoever another team would love to have. Pick up an extra draft pick and take your guy farther down the board.

I’m not saying this hypothetical is a terrible position for the Packers. They could trade back or choose to take one of their favorites at 23. Still, this would be a disconcerting position as a Packers fan watching from home. The true worst-case scenario would be Green Bay reaching for a guy they like because the players they loved were not available.