Do the Chiefs have a looming salary-cap crisis?

Over the next few days, all eyes will be firmly on the Kansas City Chiefs’ front office as negotiations with franchise-tagged right guard Trey Smith (predictably) go down to the wire. If Smith and the Chiefs do not agree to a long-term deal by 3 p.m. Arrowhead Time on Tuesday, July 15, he will have no choice but to play on the $23.4 million franchise tag tender he signed in March.

Whether or not a long-term deal is finally reached could impact several potential moves general manager Brett Veach may be considering for 2025 and 2026.

While we estimate the Chiefs are currently a comfortable $11.5 million under the 2025 salary cap, the situation for next season appears much more troubling. After giving out more than $100 million in guaranteed money to free agents this spring, the front office will almost certainly have plenty of work to do to remain under the cap — because the contract website Spotrac currently projects the Chiefs to be about $24.6 million over a hypothetical 2026 salary cap of $307 million.

Here are some of the things Veach and his staff now have on their minds.

Trey Smith’s contract

Do the Chiefs have a looming salary-cap crisis?

Smith’s deal is the proverbial elephant in the room. Failing to reach a deal — especially after trading guard Joe Thuney to (apparently) open up room for a new Smith contract — would end the offseason on a sour note.

But a long-term agreement (with most of this year’s earnings paid through a signing bonus) would probably drop his 2025 cap charge from the current $23.4 million to around $7 million or less.

Given the concern about 2026, however, any cap room saved by extending Smith could be rolled into next year — when his high salary would add to an already complicated financial picture.

If the two sides cannot reach an agreement, we probably shouldn’t expect a different outcome between them in 2026. Tagging Smith a second time would require a 20% raise — almost assuring he would hit the open market in free agency.

A new deal for Patrick Mahomes

The unconventional decade-long extension to which the Chiefs signed their quarterback in 2020 has certainly worked out for both parties. Still, years of annual restructures now have the face of the league scheduled to count $78.2 million against the salary cap in 2026 — followed by $74.4 million in 2027.

Veach will certainly not go into the next offseason with a fourth of the team’s salary cap space tied to Mahomes.

Enough years remain on the back end of Mahomes’ contract that Veach can continue using it as a salary cap bank for two more offseasons. But with the leaguewide quarterback market largely settled, it is probably time to start thinking about Mahomes’ next deal, which will almost certainly average over $60 million per season. Whether he will again be willing to accept a nominally lower average so that the team can spread out his salary-cap impact, however, will likely dictate how Kansas City’s contract finances will be handled for the rest of his career.

Deals for Trent McDuffie and George Karlaftis

If Smith gets a new deal, the Chiefs might turn their attention to their duo of first-round selections from 2022, on whom they (predictably) exercised fifth-year options to keep them under contract through 2026.

If McDuffie and Karlaftis remain in the team’s long-term plans, it would be wise to begin extension talks — hoping that a year from now, potential contract standoffs can be avoided.

This is especially true for McDuffie, who has twice been named to All-Pro squads, but has not been honored with a Pro Bowl selection. This matters because salary escalators for fifth-year options are tied to the Pro Bowl, so the cornerback’s scheduled 2026 salary is only $13.6 million. That’s far below McDuffie’s expected value.

A year ago, the Chiefs were able to get a market-topping contract finished with center Creed Humphrey during training camp. Once Smith’s situation is resolved, a similar deal with McDuffie (and potentially Karlaftis) could be in the team’s plans.

The bottom line

2026 will present salary-cap challenges that are more difficult than Kansas City has faced in other recent seasons. Based on what we now know — that is, without a long-term deal for Smith or contract changes for these other players — the Chiefs will be over whatever cap amount the league eventually sets.

Just the same, there is no reason to think this cap crunch will be unworkable for Veach and his staff. The team has only four large contracts that extend into 2027, which leaves a relatively clean financial situation for future seasons.

The performance of the 2025 draft class will also be an important factor in these calculations. Players such as defensive end Ashton Gillotte and linebacker Jeff Bassa potentially correspond to existing non-guaranteed veteran salaries from which the Chiefs could walk away next spring. Defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott and wide receiver Jalen Royals could also reduce the need for high-priced external free agents.

While Kansas City’s front office will face some difficult decisions over the next few months, the staff has proven its ability to retool the roster quickly.