Red Sox mailbag: What are the pros and cons to signing Alex Bregman for 2025 season?

The new year is officially here, and the Red Sox are now just six weeks away from reporting to Fort Myers for spring training.

How has the offseason gone so far? And what should the Red Sox still do to round out the roster? We answer your questions in today’s Red Sox mailbag.

What position do people anticipate Alex Bregman playing in Years 3 thru 6 or 7 on a hypothetical free agent deal? — B. Lamontz

This is a great question that I think touches on an upside to signing Bregman that sometimes gets glossed over. Signing Bregman would improve the lineup in the short-term while also giving the Red Sox a long-term option at third base who can slot in whenever it comes time to move Rafael Devers off the position.

And, to be clear, that wouldn’t necessarily have to happen right away.

Think about how the Red Sox handled shortstop a couple of years ago. When Trevor Story first signed, Xander Bogaerts was the club’s shortstop. He remained Boston’s shortstop for his final year with the team while Story shifted to second base, and then after Bogaerts left in free agency, the Red Sox simply moved Story back to short. That was probably the plan all along, and signing Bregman (or trading for Nolan Arenado) would make a similar transition plan viable.

Right now the Red Sox can’t shift Devers off third because they have Triston Casas at first base and Masataka Yoshida locked in as the designated hitter. Casas and Yoshida are coming off injury-plagued seasons, and Yoshida’s contract (three years, $54 million remaining) makes trading him difficult. So initially adding Bregman would fill the club’s void at second base while providing the right-handed power the Red Sox need. Then, if Casas or Yoshida were to enjoy bounce-back seasons in 2025, they’d be much more valuable and one could presumably be traded next offseason to address some future need. That would open up either first base or DH for Devers, allowing Bregman to shift back to third for the duration of his contract.

For the record, I am not in favor of trading Casas and I don’t think it’s likely Yoshida goes anywhere this offseason. But if the Red Sox sign Bregman to a long-term deal, he will absolutely be the starting third baseman by year three, no matter what else has to happen to make that possible.

There’s been a lot of buzz about Alex Bregman to play 2B. My question is, if you sign him, what do you do with Vaughn Grissom? — Steve M.

Why look at Bregman if they have Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony coming this year? Wouldn’t it be for a one-year or two-year rental? — Melanie

Playing Bregman at second base has a notable downside, which is that he’d block a spot that might otherwise be filled by one of Boston’s rising young infielders. The arrangement would probably work for at least one year, and if the Red Sox were eventually able to free up a spot elsewhere — let’s say they trade Yoshida, move Devers to DH and Bregman becomes the third baseman — that’s less of a concern. But if Bregman were still playing second base in 2026 or beyond, things could start getting crowded.

But whatever else happens in the infield, things are pretty straightforward as far as Grissom is concerned. He needs to get healthy, stay healthy and play like the guy the Red Sox thought they were getting when they traded Sale to acquire him last winter.

If Grissom can bounce back and play well, he’ll rebuild his value and potentially force himself back into the conversation in Boston. At that point the Red Sox would have to decide whether to keep him or deal him, and if they chose to trade him he’d presumably be much more valuable than he is today coming off a lost 2024.

All of Boston’s other young infielders are in a similar boat. David Hamilton and Campbell will both be battling for spots on Boston’s Opening Day roster this spring along with Grissom, and Mayer is probably only a couple of productive months in Triple-A away from his long-awaited debut as well. For each of the young up-and-comers, this is prove it time, so whoever performs the best will earn their place, and whoever doesn’t will wait their turn in Worcester.

Assuming he stays healthy, what are your expectations for Trevor Story this year? — Ray C.

Story’s health can’t be taken as a given after the last three seasons, but if he can stay on the field I think this could be a big year for him.

Whatever his other issues, Story has consistently been an elite fielder throughout his tenure in Boston. The quality of Boston’s infield defense has been night and day whenever Story’s in the lineup, and his presence has also been huge for Devers, who struggles to make plays to his left but fares adequately on balls hit in front of him. Even if he’s just OK offensively, Story will give the Red Sox a big lift.

Red Sox mailbag: What are the pros and cons to signing Alex Bregman for 2025 season?
Boston Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story plays against the Minnesota Twins during the sixth inning of a game, Friday, Sept. 20, 2024, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

Fans should be encouraged by Story’s showing upon his return last year though. Despite missing almost five months he batted .270 with two home runs, five stolen bases and a .790 OPS in 18 games following his activation. With a full spring training and hopefully no further setbacks, there’s no reason Story shouldn’t be capable of topping 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases while posting an .800 OPS or better.

I think most fans would take that.

Red Sox mailbag: What are the pros and cons to signing Alex Bregman for 2025 season?
Will the Red Sox go with Liam Hendriks as closer this year? (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

With the news that the Red Sox are still looking for bullpen arms, are they fine letting Liam Hendriks close or are they still in on a closer? Also, do they find a defensive catcher to start most games? — Reid S.

I think the Red Sox would be comfortable going with Hendriks as the closer if he’s healthy and effective, but I wouldn’t sleep on the possibility that Justin Slaten might wind up being the guy. He was Boston’s most effective reliever as a rookie for large stretches of last season, and when he got hurt the bullpen pretty much immediately went into the tank.

That said, Breslow did say earlier this week that he’s still looking for another reliever, and with the closer market still largely untapped I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Sox added a clear-cut No. 1 guy. Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez would all fit the bill, though if they’re comfortable with Hendriks, Slaten or Aroldis Chapman closing, you could make a case for bringing Chris Martin back for one more year as another reliable set-up man.

As far as the catching situation is concerned, Connor Wong is going to start and will probably get the majority of the playing time. He does need to improve defensively, but the Red Sox have restructured their coaching staff so Jason Varitek can focus on game planning while new catching instructor Parker Guinn works directly with the catchers, which should help. The Red Sox also just acquired catching prospect Carlos Narvaez from the Yankees, and while he’s only got six MLB games under his belt, he’s earned rave reviews for his defense and pitch framing.

Do you think the millionaire’s tax is impacting players staying or coming to Boston? — Ray and Anne Marie S.

I’m sure that the millionaire’s tax has been a topic of discussion among players and their agents since it was instituted, but given the specifics of the baseball landscape, I doubt it’s had a huge effect one way or the other.

Theoretically, the tax would provide clubs in low-tax states with a competitive advantage over the Red Sox, one that would particularly benefit clubs based in places like Florida and Texas that have no state income tax. The problem is those clubs — especially the two based in Florida — historically haven’t been the biggest spenders. The clubs generally handing out the biggest contracts — the Dodgers, the Yankees, the Mets, etc. — are based in California and New York, which have higher tax rates than Massachusetts. That dynamic actually could have given the Red Sox a leg up in their pursuit of Juan Soto, as Boston’s money would have gone farther than the Yankees’ or Mets’ had the club made a big enough offer.

There are instances where favorable tax rates may have helped influence a player’s decision. Zach Eflin choosing the Tampa Bay Rays over a similar offer from the Red Sox ahead of 2023 is one, and Corbin Burnes’ decision to sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks instead of the San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays this winter is another. Both of those players were also choosing to play closer to home though, so it’s not as simple as just saying it came down to taxes.

Either way, players are generally going to go where they can make the most money, and with no salary cap, teams like the Red Sox and Yankees can overcome their state’s tax disadvantages by simply offering enough extra to offset the difference.

Are there any potential negative consequences from the Netflix doc as the season gets underway? — @RedSoxPayroll

Of course! I have not seen the Netflix documentary, but as this last season of Hard Knocks on the New York Giants has shown, these kinds of projects aren’t without risk.

Suppose we get a scene where Alex Cora and Craig Breslow are having a candid conversation about a player still with the team that doesn’t go over well. Maybe a player learns they were involved in unreported trade discussions, harming their relationship with the front office.

Perhaps someone says or does something that goes viral and becomes a real life distraction. Giants general manager Joe Schoen came across poorly on Hard Knocks for his handling of Saquon Barkley’s free agency — a possible equivalent for the Red Sox might be someone making dismissive comments about Chris Sale during spring training, only for the lefty to go on and win the National League Cy Young.

How the show handles Jarren Duran’s homophobic remark and the resulting fallout could be particularly fraught. If someone is shown minimizing Duran’s comments or saying something ill-advised, that could prompt backlash.

You can imagine any number of pitfalls, but generally speaking I think most of the potential downside to doing the show would have occurred last season during filming. Now there won’t be any more camera crews, day-to-day life around the park will be more normal, and regardless of how the show turns out, players will eventually get into their routines and life will go on.

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