2025 MLB Playoffs Preview: Chicago Cubs

When the Chicago Cubs won the 2016 World Series, famously breaking their century-long slump, they seemed to have the roster to make a couple more runs at it. Of the position players on their roster to get at least 200 plate appearances, eight were under 30 years old, led by that year’s MVP, a 24-year old Kris Bryant.

However, that version of the Cubs didn’t come remotely close to a dynastic run. They advanced back to the NLCS the following year, lost both an NL Central tiebreaker and the NL Wild Card Game* in 2018, and have only appearance once in the postseason since then — a brief two-and-out home loss to the Marlins in the expanded playoffs in the shortened 2020 season. Most of the young pieces from that 2016 team ended up traded away, including the now-retired Anthony Rizzo to the Yankees.

*Fun fact: The Cubs are responsible for the Colorado Rockies’ only playoff win in 15 years, inexplicably scoring just once off Rockies pitching in 13 innings at Wrigley. Ouch.

Now, nine years later, the Cubs have fully rebuilt from their only World Series win in living memory and have a team that wouldn’t entirely come out of nowhere if they made a run in 2025.

2025 record: 92-70
Manager: Craig Counsell
Top Position Player by WAR: Pete Crow-Armstrong (5.3 fWAR)
Top Pitcher by WAR: Matthew Boyd (3.5 fWAR)

The Cubs hovered around the playoff picture all season, but for a while, they looked headed for an even better regular season than they actually had. They assumed first place in the NL Central for the first time on April 4th and were at worst tied for the top spot every day through July 19th, up by as many as 6.5 games. However, around the start of July, the Brewers went on a 30-5 run that featured two different winning streaks of at least 11 games. From that point forward, the Cubs generally still had one of the better records in the NL; they just got stuck trying to chase the team with the best record in baseball.

A big strength of the Cubs is that, while they do have a couple very-good-to-great players, more than anything else, they just don’t have very many holes. Of their position players who’ve appeared in at least 100 games, only two, Dansby Swanson and Matt Shaw, have a wRC+ below the league average 100, and in their cases, they’re both in the 90s and only just under. They’re led on that front by Michael Busch and Kyle Tucker with 141 and 137 wRC+ marks, respectively, though the latter only just returned from the IL with a calf injury

The best-rated all-around Cubs’ player according to fWAR is Pete Crow-Armstrong. A good amount of his value in his 5.3 WAR comes from his excellent defense and baserunning, but he is also a pretty good hitter, matching Jazz Chisholm Jr. and a handful of others with a 30/30 season, just the second Cubs player to do so in their long history after Sammy Sosa. Crow-Armstrong got off to a very hot start at the plate this year, and looked like he could end up in the NL MVP discussions. He cooled off drastically enough (.533 OPS from August 1st onward) to merely end up as a just a pretty good hitter, but his all-around tools could make him a dangerous player in the playoffs.

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Also interesting to watch will be Moisés Ballesteros. Having made his MLB debut in May, he broke out down the stretch to put himself in position to make the playoff roster in the first place, as he put up a 1.025 OPS over September. His defense at first base and catcher rate as a bit below average, which might take him out of the starting lineup, but he certainly has potential as a pinch-hitter.

The Cubs’ rotation is similar to the lineup in that there aren’t any real Cy Young contenders in there, but — at least in the best-of-three Wild Card Series, there’s no one truly bad. Any potential for a deep playoff run took a huge hit when arguably the best Cubs’ starter—rookie standout Cade Horton—hit the IL with a rib fracture. He could be back for later rounds, but Chicago will certainly wish he could take the mound in the WCS. The only potential downside of the Cubs’ rotation is that two of their likely Wild Card Series starters—2025 All-Star Matthew Boyd and 2024 All-Star Shota Imanaga—struggled down the stretch, despite productive overall numbers on the campaign.

As far as the bullpen goes, the Cubs look fairly solid on that front following abysmal start to the year. The also have the option of putting three lefties on the WCS roster in Andrew Kittredge, Taylor Rogers, and Caleb Thielbar. That could be especially helpful against a Padres’ team that has a bunch of left-handed hitters in the lineup.

Almost anything could happen in a series as short as a best-of-three. However, the Cubs could be a tough out in a series that short just because they simply don’t have many glaring flaws.

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