The Green Bay Packers used a dominant defensive front and explosive plays from the passing game to create impressive wins over the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders to open the season, but an inability to block up front and a late collapse prevented Matt LaFleur’s team from getting to 3-0. Going into the bye week at 3-1 will require the Packers to get back to their winning blueprint on Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys.
Can LaFleur’s team produce a primetime win as a road favorite in Dallas?
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Five keys to the Packers beating the Cowboys on Sunday night:
1. Patchwork offensive line must rebound
The Packers got run over up front on offense in Cleveland and will likely be without three of their top seven offensive linemen on Sunday night, including right tackles Zach Tom and Anthony Belton. Can the offensive line rebound? The Cowboys aren’t without talent along the defensive front, but there’s no Myles Garrett, and the Cowboys rank among the NFL’s worst in sacks (4.0) and quarterback hits (12). If the Packers can block, the offense will likely score a lot of points. If not, the game immediately evens up. The likely starting lineup is Rasheed Walker at left tackle, Jordan Morgan at left guard, Elgton Jenkins at center, Sean Rhyan at right guard and Darian Kinnard at right tackle. There’s more than enough talent and experience for the Packers to get the job done on Sunday night, but the offensive line has to play better.
2. Stop the run
The Cowboys have been one of the most efficient rushing teams in football, and considering the Packers’ pass-rushing ability and the absence of Pro Bowl receiver CeeDee Lamb, establishing the run will likely be a priority for Dallas. Running backs Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders have combined for almost 350 rushing yards in three games, and Williams is among the league leaders in success rate (67.4 percent), yards per carry (5.4) and yards after first contact (3.72). Can the Packers tackle Williams, contain the run and force the Cowboys to be one-dimensional? Jeff Hafley’s defense is allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, the third best mark in football through three weeks.
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3. Dominate obvious passing situations on defense
The Packers have thrived in obvious passing situations and on third down this season, largely due to an incredible pass-rush spearheaded by Micah Parsons. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 4.8 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 61.2 on third down against the Packers this season, so it’s not surprising that the Packers are among the best third-down defenses in football (31.8 percent conversions, fifth). Stopping the run and creating disruptive plays on early downs can help the Packers set up opportunities to get the preferred pass-rushing packages on the field. And watch for snaps when Parsons, Rashan Gary and Lukas Van Ness are on the field together. According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers have allowed 1.5 yards per play and are generating pressure on almost 40 percent of snaps with those three on the field together this season (22 snaps, 16 on third down).
4. Win the explosive play battle
The Packers defense has been the NFL’s best at preventing big plays this season, and forcing teams to slowly navigate the field while avoiding negative plays has been a winning formula for Jeff Hafley’s highly disruptive group. Dak Prescott can dink and dunk, but the Packers will be confident in limiting points and making stops if the Cowboys struggle to generate big plays. The Cowbyos won’t have CeeDee Lamb, but George Pickens is an excellent deep ball winner, and Jalen Tolbert and KaVonte Turpin have elite speed. Offensively, the Packers must pass protect better to give Jordan Love time to go big-play hunting down the field. The Cowboys have given up 13 plays of 25 or more yards in the passing game and have consistently allowed big plays down the field (11 completions on passes thrown 20 yards or more).
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5. Finish
In Week 1, the Packers scored 10 straight points in the fourth quarter after the Lions closed the gap to 17-6. In Week 2, the Packers scored 10 straight points in the fourth quarter after the Commanders closed the gap to 17-10. But last week, the Packers led 10-0 late in the fourth quarter before giving up 13 straight points and losing at the buzzer. More than likely, the Packers will be leading at some point in the second half on Sunday night. Can they slam the door shut on the road in primetime? Running the football and rushing the passer are all big parts of closing games. The Packers need to show that last week’s collapse was a fluke and not a sign of trouble to come late in games.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: 5 keys to Packers beating Cowboys on ‘SNF’ in Week 4