SAN FRANCISCO — The math is extremely difficult, but not totally impossible. The Chicago Cubs have 30 games remaining to erase a 6 1/2-game deficit in the National League Central and overtake the Milwaukee Brewers for a division title. For historical context, remember this quote from Theo Epstein: “Our offense broke.”
That scathing analysis from Epstein, Chicago’s president of baseball operations back in 2018, set the stage for an organizational reckoning. Milwaukee’s rise helped spur those sweeping changes, which would eventually include Joe Maddon’s exit and the dissolution of the 2016 World Series core.
The frustrations stemmed, in part, from how future Cubs manager Craig Counsell seemed to do more with less while running the 2018 Brewers. That year, the Cubs held a five-game divisional lead on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend, only to watch Milwaukee storm back to force and win a Game 163 at Wrigley Field.
“We just got kind of dragged down,” said Cubs outfielder Ian Happ, the only player remaining from that 2018 team. “We won 95 games and it was a disappointment.”
Indeed, the Cubs posted a 16-12 record that September, which made it more of a fade than a collapse. The playoff format is also materially different now. There are no more Game 163 tiebreakers — the Cubs already hold that over the Brewers after winning the season series. No matter what, neither club will get pushed into a one-game wild-card round.
Clearly, what the Brewers built was sturdy enough to withstand the eventual departures of Counsell, top executive David Stearns, and All-Stars such as Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams. But it is a good reminder that momentum can change quickly, and a season will continue taking different shapes.
“When you’re in a position like we’re in, you can’t do anything more than today,” Counsell said before Tuesday night’s 5-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. “But it makes you focus on doing your thing today. That’s all you can focus on. Sometimes losing sight of the bigger picture is a good thing that makes you just focus on today.
“We still have to make decisions for the big picture. That’s absolutely important for the group. And we will. Because one day is not going to determine this thing. It’s a bunch of good days stacked up.”
Tuesday was not a great day for the Cubs in the Bay Area. Counsell’s pregame update on Jameson Taillon, who left Sunday’s start early with left groin tightness, did not sound particularly promising: “Some level of concern still. Definitely not a go for sure yet.” That decision will likely be made with the big picture in mind — trying to keep Taillon healthy for October rather than forcing the issue.
More than 2,000 miles away in Wisconsin, the Brewers eked out a 9-8 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks, continuing their good fortune in one-run games (26-16). The Cubs lost more ground as Justin Verlander, the 42-year-old likely future Hall of Famer, outperformed Matthew Boyd, whose last two outings have not replicated his All-Star first half.
“As a group, there’s something really powerful about getting through things that are challenging,” Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner said. “It’s things early in the season, the starting pitchers that went down and guys that stepped up. It’s the offense, collectively, having incredible success and going through challenges and coming out the other side of it, hopefully, in these upcoming weeks. All that’s part of creating confidence.”
Another quiet night for Chicago’s offense and a subpar start from Boyd (five runs allowed in 5 1/3 innings) did not fundamentally change the outlook for a team that, according to Baseball Reference, began the day with a 99.9 percent chance to qualify for the postseason.
“Our eye is absolutely still on our goal from the start of the year, which is winning the division and putting ourselves in the best place for the playoffs,” Hoerner said. “Obviously, (the Brewers have) played a lot of great baseball. Outside of the games that we played them, we can’t do anything about that. But we can control how we play from here out.
“We are in a really strong place with how our roster is set up right now, with the combination of the starting pitching success that we’ve had and what our offense is capable of. We’re in a good spot to finish strong.”
On paper, the Cubs have an easy schedule in September. Counsell’s conservative approach with the pitching staff is supposed to pay off down the stretch. All-Star outfielders Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong have shown signs of breaking out of their offensive slumps. The team’s elite defense should remain consistent.
evidence of pete doing something spectacular: pic.twitter.com/IwKvNNja34
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 27, 2025
When first asked about the flashback to 2018, Happ turned around at his locker inside Oracle Park’s visiting clubhouse and spoke in an exaggerated, gravelly voice: “I saw it all.” Losing Game 163 to the Brewers and getting beat by the Colorado Rockies in the wild-card round shook the organization and led to major ramifications.
For now at least, the Cubs are keeping it in perspective, knowing this isn’t the NFL or a tournament with at-large bids. Not that long ago, the Brewers showed it could be done.
“The season ebbs and flows,” Happ said. “That’s why you play all these games. That’s why the season is as long as it is. Things aren’t over in June. Things aren’t over in August. You got to play the last 30. Every year, whether it’s our division or another division, stuff changes in the last 30 games.
“You’re playing for a division until you’re not.”
(Photo of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner: Ed Szczepanski / Imagn Images)
