On Aug. 6, the Atlanta Braves were swept by the Milwaukee Brewers. They found themselves 15 games back of a playoff spot, and the season seemed as over as it ever had. Fast-forward to Aug. 15, and this team is now 10 games back.
They’re still very much on the outside looking in. Forget being in the picture. That being said, this team has gained five games in the standings in a week and a half. That’s a statistical fact.
Perhaps it’s the intrusive thoughts getting to this young beat writer, but hear me out. What if Sept. 1 rolls around, and this team gains a few more games in the standings? They’re, say, six or seven games back.
It’s still a long shot, but suddenly the most stunning comeback we’ve seen in a long time becomes feasible. The Braves have been on the opposite end of this situation before. In 2011, they were eight and a half games ahead of the Cardinals at the start of September, and the Cardinals came back.
While not an example fans want to remember, the precedent of a crazy comeback is out there to use as inspiration, even if it was at a team’s own expense almost 15 years ago.
Let’s look at the factors that make this plausible.
This team has seen multiple key players look like their old selves, if not better, since the start of August. Michael Harris II and Marcell Ozuna have an OPS over 1.000 this month, helping make this recent run possible.
On the pitching side, they have also seen Joey Wentz and Hurston Waldrep rise up as rotation options. Wentz has a 2.83 ERA in six outings, while Wladrep has a 1.02 ERA in three. Even if Waldrep comes down to earth a bit, he’s still going to be a rock-solid arm.
Closer Raisel Iglesias returned to his old self. He has a 1.69 ERA in his last 28 games after having a 6.79 ERA in his first 25.
On the health side of things, Ronald Acuña Jr. is now back. Chris Sale is closing in on being back and Austin Riley is likely to be back soon. That adds three veterans back into the mix who can confidently be expected to make an impact.
Has the “get healthy” approach helped the Braves much this season? No, but these are three guys who were strong contributors before injuries, even if Riley hasn’t been at the level he typically is.
A (Somewhat) Favorable Schedule
The Braves have been playing well while some teams ahead of them are hitting ruts at the worst time. Some of these struggling teams are still ahead on the schedule, along with other seller dwellers.
The Braves get to play the Mets again, who are crumbling and have been a reliable source of wins for the team. They get the Marlins, who are coming back down to earth, and the Cubs, who have lost 10 of their last 16.
Along with those who are taking a turn for the worse, the Nationals and Pirates are ahead. The improved performance by the Braves should allow them to get past these teams this go around.
To keep it simple, while hot, hit them while they’re down.
However, this schedule isn’t entirely easy. They still have the Phillies, Mariners, Astros and Tigers. Three of them are division leaders, with a fourth fighting for the division crown.
Find a way to hold your own against these teams, and the Braves should be able to keep chipping away.
It’s still a tough hill to climb. There are still plenty of factors out of their control, including other teams that need to slip in over to leapfrog them in the division. But they have teams left on the schedule that give them a fighting chance.
There is also a chance this hypothetical jinxes any hope of this happening. In that case, at least we had some fun exploring it.
