The Philadelphia Phillies have never looked more like a World Series team. They made splashy deadline moves, have stars raking, and own one of the best records in baseball. Their postseason odds are nearly locked in, and their roster is one of the most complete in the league.

But while everything appears fine on the surface, there’s one issue that could quietly unravel it all: the starting rotation. Let’s be clear — president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski didn’t sit still at the trade deadline. He made two savvy moves that bolstered the roster. The first: trading for flame-throwing closer Jhoan Duran in a deal with the Twins that cost the club top prospects Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait. It’s a classic Dombrowski win-now move. Duran has closer stuff, three more years of control after 2025, and gives the Phillies a lethal late-game trio with Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering.

The second move: a lower-profile but logical pickup in Harrison Bader, also from Minnesota. Bader isn’t a game-changer offensively — his expected stats (.225 xBA, .385 xSLG) suggest regression is coming — but he’s been solid this year and gives Philly a needed right-handed bat and major defensive upgrade. With Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler struggling in center and left, Bader can plug in wherever needed and potentially push Marsh over to left. A subtle depth boost with upside.

And yet… even with those upgrades, the Phillies’ greatest weakness remains unresolved: starting pitching depth.

The Ranger Suárez slide is real

Ranger Suárez was elite in the first half. He had a 1.83 ERA through 12 starts and looked like a legitimate Cy Young candidate. But since the All-Star break? The wheels have come off.

In his last five starts, Suárez has given up 18 earned runs — matching his entire first-half total — and owns a post-break ERA of 5.79. On Wednesday, he surrendered five runs and nine hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 5-1 loss to the Orioles, including a back-breaking three-run homer by Coby Mayo.

Former Phillies closer Ricky Bottalico didn’t sugarcoat it on NBC Sports Philadelphia: “He just doesn’t look like the same pitcher… you’re starting to see diminished velocity, less command, and frankly, some fatigue. I think he’s running out of gas.”

That’s concerning. Especially when Zack Wheeler is also dealing with shoulder tightness.

Wheeler’s Shoulder Tightness Is a Warning Sign
The Phillies’ ace was scheduled to pitch Friday in New York. But after experiencing shoulder stiffness, he was scratched and sent for an MRI. It came back clean, but the club pushed his start to Sunday as a precaution.

Manager Rob Thomson downplayed it, but let’s be honest — any shoulder discomfort in August should set off alarms. Wheeler has been elite again this year, with a 4.9 WAR and another possible Cy Young push. The team can’t afford to lose him in the postseason. Wheeler will start again. But even the possibility of arm trouble makes it crystal clear how thin the rotation really is behind him.

The Andrew Painter dilemma

And that brings us to Andrew Painter — the top prospect who could flip the script.

Painter, once expected to debut in July, has spent the season in Triple-A trying to reclaim his form after Tommy John surgery. His season has been inconsistent. He owns a 4.88 ERA over 72 innings and has struggled with command, especially against lefties, who are hitting .311 with an .881 OPS against him. His last outing? Four innings, five runs, four walks.

The good news: his stuff is still electric. He’s throwing 95 mph, developing a wipeout slider, and soaking up coaching like a sponge. The bad news? He’s still raw. And right now, he’s more of a project than a playoff contributor. But the Phillies may not have a choice.

With Mick Abel now gone and Taijuan Walker bouncing between mediocre starts and bullpen duty, the club needs someone — anyone — to rise. Walker has a 3.77 ERA in 10 starts and has battled through rough patches, but he’s not a frontline answer in October. And Suárez is trending in the wrong direction.

Why This Rotation Might Crack in October
The Phillies can hit. They can field. They’ve got an elite bullpen with Duran, Strahm, and Kerkering.

But in October, it’s about who can give you six strong innings — not who can give you vibes and velocity. And right now, outside of Wheeler (when healthy) and maybe Nola (when he returns), no one in this rotation feels like a playoff lock.

That’s why Painter is so important. If he can figure it out over the next month — if his command sharpens and he shows just enough consistency — he could be a secret weapon. Maybe it’s not a six-inning role. Maybe it’s a long-relief bridge to Duran. But he’s the one arm with the upside to flip this postseason race.

The Phillies are all-in. They have the offense, the bullpen, and the manager to win it all. But their rotation is a tightrope walk. And if they fall short this October, it won’t be because of Bryce Harper or Jhoan Duran. It’ll be because they didn’t have enough arms — or the right ones.