Have the Orioles found their ace of the future?
The Baltimore Orioles’ 2025 season has been a disaster, largely due to the complete collapse of the starting rotation.
Baltimore’s failure to re-sign Corbin Burnes during the offseason or find starting pitchers to make up for that loss has resulted in a 4.87 team ERA, the fourth-worst in MLB. In particular, the rotation has a 4.96 ERA (26th in the majors), which effectively doomed the team from the start and resulted in the Orioles becoming a major seller at the trade deadline.
However, in an otherwise dark chasm, a bright light has emerged in the rotation: left-hander Trevor Rogers, who didn’t make his season debut until May 24 after starting the year on the injured list.
In his 10 starts this season, Rogers has been nothing short of magnificent. In 62.1 innings pitched, the 27-year-old southpaw boasts a robust 1.44 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 2.57 FIP; opponents are hitting just .168 against Rogers, while drawing just 15 walks and striking out 54 times. He is one of only two pitchers to have an ERA below 1.50 since his season debut, with the Texas Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi (1.03 ERA) being the other.
Rogers continued his impressive campaign on Wednesday against the Philadelphia Phillies. Facing the NL East leader, the lefty improved his record to 5-2 by tossing six innings of one-run ball. Despite allowing eight hits, the only damage done against Rogers was an RBI single by Trea Turner; Rogers worked his way through traffic by stranding seven runners and holding Philadelphia’s lineup to just one hit in seven at-bats with runners in scoring position.
Rogers was acquired by the Orioles from the Marlins at last year’s trade deadline, with Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers going to Miami. The lefty had struggled with a 4.53 ERA prior to the trade, and his first four starts as an Oriole were not encouraging, allowing 16 runs in 19 innings. This led to Baltimore optioning Rogers to the Triple-A Norfolk Tides on August 22, 2024.
But with Rogers’ rapid development this season, those early struggles seem like a distant memory. Now, it would be wise for the Orioles to discuss a contract extension with him. After this season, the 27-year-old has one more year under team control before hitting free agency.
While this gives Baltimore a decent amount of time to negotiate, they need to act quickly due to the state of the rotation around him; Dean Kremer is an innings-eater at best, Tomoyuki Sugano is intended to be a stopgap, Zach Eflin is a free agent after the season, and Grayson Rodriguez, despite his potential, has been ravaged by injuries over the past two seasons.
The 2025 season has been one to forget, but Rogers’ season has been unforgettable. And if the Orioles intend on competing again in 2026, they should do everything in their power to keep their brand new ace long-term.
