Though many predicted heading into the 2025 season that the Orioles’ weak starting rotation and general inactivity over the offseason would come back to haunt them, even Baltimore’s biggest skeptics weren’t prognosticating that the team would sit well under .500 and 7.5 games out of playoff position at the end of July.

Such as it is, the Orioles spent this year’s trade deadline turning over roughly a third of their roster.

Over the last week or so, the O’s have traded relievers Gregory Soto, Seranthony Domínguez, and Andrew Kittredge, along with infielders Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Urías. Then on Thursday afternoon, Anthony DiComo reported that Cedric Mullins was on his way to the Mets; a few hours later, Jeff Passan broke the news that Charlie Morton would be joining the Tigers.

The only healthy pending free agent who wasn’t traded out of Baltimore is Tomoyuki Sugano, and with Zach Eflin hitting the IL mere hours before the deadline, Sugano is now a load-bearing member of the rotation.

Mullins was drafted by Baltimore in the 13th round of the 2015 draft. He debuted with the club in 2018 and has been a full-time starter with the O’s since 2021.

Over the last few years, Mullins has hovered right around league average at the plate, but he arrives at his full season numbers riding high peaks and low valleys:

This season Mullins started strong, slumped through much of May and June, and then bounced back in July.

Whether he can sustain July’s success into August and beyond remains an open question, but perhaps more uncertain is whether or not Mullins will sustain his newfound reverse platoon splits.

For his career, Mullins has posted splits typical of a lefty hitter, logging an 84 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and a 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

But this season, Mullins owns a 143 wRC+ against lefties and an 89 wRC+ against righties. Mullins has made some adjustments to his stance that could be the source of the sudden reversal.

He’s positioning himself slightly further back in the box and slightly closer to the plate. His feet are closer together, but his stance is more open, which might make it easier for him to track pitches thrown from the left side.

His current set up in the box is similar to his stance from 2023, the only season in his career to see Mullins post neutral platoon splits.

His platoon splits will likely have a large influence on how and when Mullins is deployed for the Mets, but not because of the situation in center field specifically.

In recent weeks, Jeff McNeil and Tyrone Taylor have split time in center for New York, but the timeshare isn’t based on starting pitcher handedness.

Instead, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza is making a daily choice between McNeil’s bat and Taylor’s glove. McNeil has posted a 126 wRC+ while playing all over the diamond this year, but his limited range means he’s a slightly negative contributor in the outfield by FRV.

Taylor, on the other hand, has a wRC+ of 58, but ranks seventh in FRV among center fielders despite having accrued less playing time than several of his peers. Mullins essentially splits the difference between the two, posting a 104 wRC+ with much better range than McNeil in the outfield, but a notably weaker arm compared to Taylor.

So Mullins doesn’t just address the Mets’ need for a more complete center fielder; he also addresses their need for better hitting against left-handed pitching, at least potentially. As a team, the Mets have posted a 114 wRC+ against right-handers, fifth best in the majors.

But against lefties, the Mets rank 18th, with a wRC+ of 90. If Mullins’ 2025 platoon splits are the new normal, then it makes sense to give him the nod in center against left-handed starters and let McNeil move back to the infield, where he can spell either Brett Baty at second or Ronny Mauricio at third, since both struggle against southpaws.

Against righties, Mendoza will have the flexibility to gear his lineup toward more specific matchup considerations and distribute rest days as needed.

Mullins joins relievers Gregory Soto, Ryan Helsley, and Tyler Rogers as the deadline additions for New York. As it stands, the Mets own a half-game divisional lead over the Phillies, who currently hold the second NL Wild Card and made similar moves in recent days to reinforce their bullpen and outfield options.

Though adding Mullins might feel like the Mets are making finicky adjustments to an already strong roster, in a tight race against a competitor also working to get better, they’re right to seek whatever marginal gains a player like Mullins offers.

As a result, the Mets sent a trio of relievers back to the Orioles, who seemed to realize they might need to restock after trading away four members of their bullpen who have combined to throw almost 150 innings so far this season.

(That’s not actually the reason, as only one of these pitchers is anywhere near cracking the majors, but I like the image of Mike Elias stopping at Royal Farms on his way into work and then, just as he’s strolling into his office, smacking his forehead because he forgot to pick up a couple relievers while he was at the store.) The three-pitcher package includes Anthony Nunez, Chandler Marsh, and Raimon Gomez.

Nunez was originally drafted out of high school as a shortstop, later converted to pitching, and over the span of two seasons and 50 innings pitched, quickly worked his way up to Double-A.

According to his most recent prospect report,courtesy of Eric Longenhagen, his showpiece is an impressive slider that he commands well enough to survive in high-leverage situations at the big league level.

The report continues, “Nunez doesn’t throw all that hard, but he has a good cutter that keeps hitters off of his fastball, and he’ll turn over the occasional sinking changeup. He’s been utterly dominant all year and is a virtual lock to be put on a 40-man roster this offseason.” Based on that evaluation, there’s a decent chance he joins Baltimore’s bullpen next season.

The other two pitchers fall more into the high upside flamethrowers category. Per his report, Marsh, an undrafted free agent out of Georgia, is “thriving as a reliever at Brooklyn thanks to his vertical slider and a 94-97 mph fastball that plays down due to a lack of control.” Likewise, Gomez struggles to command a high velocity fastball.

His heater sits 97-103 mph. Quoting from his report, “His arm speed breaks the sound barrier and when his delivery is synched up, Gomez approaches the upper boundary of what is possible for humans to do with a baseball.

[But] he has zero idea where it’s going and throws a ton of non-competitive pitches, especially when he throws his low-90s slider, which he lands for a strike less than 60% of the time.” The report further states that Gomez is unlikely to ever be as effective as, say, Aroldis Chapman, but (and this is me editorializing now) with that kind of velocity, he’ll almost certainly be given ample opportunity to try.

The Orioles closed out their deadline dealings by sending Morton to the Tigers. Morton signed with Baltimore on a one-year, $15 million deal back in January. After showing very few signs of aging in recent years, the 41 year-old took a step back this season and even agreed to pitch out of the bullpen for a spell in May. The break from starting seemed to do Morton some good, and he was able to bounce back after an atrocious April and log some productive innings in May and June, but his July has regressed back to his April. For the Tigers to get productive innings from Morton, they’ll need to help him tweak his curveball. The pitch has picked up several additional inches of glove-side movement, impacting his command and his ability to generate groundballs. As a result, hitters are slugging .398 against the curve this year, compared to .309 in 2024.

The Tigers likely view Morton as an insurance policy, a pitcher who can alternate between spot starting and providing long relief innings out of the bullpen. Morton joins Sawyer Gipson-Long, Alex Cobb, and rookie Troy Melton in the mix for the fifth starter spot. Both Gipson-Long and Cobb are working their way back from injuries on uncertain timelines.

Melton has made just two starts in the majors, giving up six runs over five innings against the Pirates, then throwing seven scoreless against the Diamondbacks.

Though Melton is highly regarded, ranking 70th on our most recent Top 100 Prospects list and fifth within Detroit’s system, it’s reasonable for the Tigers to avoid putting too much pressure on a guy with 12 innings in the big leagues.

But Morton wasn’t Detroit’s only addition to the pitching staff. After Reese Olson went down with a season-ending shoulder surgery a few days ago, the Tigers traded for Chris Paddack, though the Tigers clearly feel that more is better when it comes to pitching. With Morton and Paddack in the fold, Detroit also fortified its bullpen at the deadline, adding relievers Luke Jackson, Codi Heuer, Kyle Finnegan, Paul Sewald, and Rafael Montero.

In exchange for Morton, Detroit sent 6-foot-7 left-handed reliever Micah Ashman to Baltimore. Ashman was drafted in the 11th round of the 2024 draft after setting the all-time saves record at Utah. He threw 39 1/3 innings at High-A before a promotion last week to Double-A, where he logged an additional three scoreless innings.

Ashman hasn’t allowed a home run all year, and he’s striking out batters at a 30% clip in pro ball and while walking fewer than 6%. He throws a low-90s fastball, a low-80s slider, and a split-finger changeup. Both the slider and changeup generate a ton of swing-and-miss. He creates deception by combining his height with a funky over the top delivery.

When I asked Eric for the deets on Ashman’s arsenal and future profile, he pegged him as a middle-inning reliever.

Following fairly quiet offseasons, both the Orioles and Tigers navigated the deadline as volume shooters, acquiring as many players as possible in the hope that a few will work out, be it now or in the future.

Meanwhile, a very active offseason for the Mets preceded a deadline where they were able to make more targeted moves to improve on the margins. But as we all know, procrastination doesn’t preclude success — though it may have caused a delay for the Orioles — and preparation doesn’t guarantee victory.