The Baltimore Orioles have been among the most disappointing teams in baseball this year; the O’s start the second half of 2025 mired in the basement of the AL East and looking to sell rather than buy at the upcoming trade deadline.

That’s hardly what anyone expected of this team coming off of two consecutive postseason appearances, but the first sign things were going off the rails came way back in February, when young ace Grayson Rodriguez was put on the shelf with inflammation in his throwing elbow.

At first, it seemed like the O’s may have dodged a bullet: MRIs came back negative, and Rodriguez wouldn’t need to undergo any kind of surgery. He was shut down from his throwing program, with the hope that he’d be able to resume his build-up and make his season debut without missing too much time.

Some four months later, Rodriguez still hasn’t thrown a pitch this season. And based on the latest news, it’s looking increasingly likely that he never will: According to MASN’s Roch Kubatko, Rodriguez has been shut down from throwing once again with, wait for it, elbow soreness.

That’s the third time that Rodriguez has suffered a setback in his attempt to take the mound already this year. At this point, it feels like a matter of when, not if, the righty eventually needs to go under the knife.

Maybe that’s undue speculation; maybe he’ll rest for a few more weeks and then be able to ramp up again without issue.

But Baltimore just went through the same situation last year with another budding young pitcher, Kyle Bradish: Like Rodriguez, Bradish had his start to 2024 delayed due to an elbow injury. And like Rodriguez, the O’s opted against surgery, activating him in early May after missing more than a month of action.

Bradish lasted about six weeks or so before the team determined he’d need Tommy John surgery after all; he missed not only the rest of 2024 but has yet to pitch this season, though he’s about to go out on a rehab assignment and could return at some point in August. Again, we’re not doctors, and we don’t know what’s actually wrong with Rodriguez.

But it’s sure seeming like the Orioles are letting history repeat itself, and that irresponsible decision might affect much more than the team’s fortunes in 2025.

Orioles made a bad situation worse with Grayson Rodriguez, and now 2026 is in jeopardy

It wouldn’t have made much of a difference whether Rodriguez was able to return this season or not. Baltimore is more than one starter away from making a run, and we have no idea how the righty would look after so many months on the shelf.

But GM Mike Elias has made it very clear that he wants this team to be back in contention as soon as 2026. That would necessarily require a healthy Rodriguez, who’s the closest thing to a frontline starter this beleaguered rotation currently has.

Now, even that much is in question.

If Rodriguez does wind up needing surgery, we’re at the point now where it will cost him not only the rest of this season but also most or all of next season as well. And with Baltimore’s reticence to spend to solve its pitching problem, it’s hard to imagine how they’ll field a competitive rotation in 2026 if Rodriguez isn’t pitching like the All-Star he started to look like at times in 2024.

All of which could’ve been avoided had Baltimore made a proactive decision. Obviously no one is advocating for Rodriguez to get a surgery he doesn’t need, but after the Bradish ordeal last year, the O’s have forfeited the benefit of the doubt. The 2026 season is now in jeopardy for this team, and that would bring Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson one year closer to free agency — or, more realistically, one year closer to Baltimore trading them rather than losing them for nothing.

Not long ago, it seemed like Baltimore was positioned for an extended run atop the AL. Now, though, thanks to a mix of incompetence and bad luck, it might all be crumbling down.