After last season, it looked like Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Harris II could be in for a breakout season. His overall numbers were down compared to his first two seasons (.264 average, .722 OPS), but his finish to the season indicated something was brewing.
In his final 43 games of the season, he batted .281 with an .823 OPS with 11 home runs and 28 RBIs. Over 162 games, he was on pace to hit 41 home runs and drive in 105 runs. He was healthy after a long stint on the injured list due to a hamstring strain, and he was popping off.
That big year never materialized. In fact, he took an opposite turn. He’s batting .210 with a .552 OPS, the latter stat ranking last among qualified hitters. His .235 on-base percentage is last among qualified hitters, too. According to Baseball Savant, his batting run value is now in the first percentile compared to the 52nd percentile last season. Instead of a major step forward, he’s the statistically worst hitter in baseball.
He was the National League Rookie of the Year three years ago. That elite defense that helped establish him as a top center fielder in the game is still there. His bat has just evaporated.
Manager Brian Snitker hoped that taking him out of the lineup for a couple of games would help him mentally reset, but that hasn’t panned out either. Since returning to the lineup, he’s batting .182 with a .455 OPS, which is worse than his season stats. He also still hasn’t drawn a walk since May 18. It’s been nearly two months since he’s gotten a free pass. That can’t happen. In theory, it shouldn’t have reached this point. It’s arguably a statistical anomaly, but it’s a fact of the matter, either way.
It’s easier said than done to fix his approach at the plate, but it still has to be asked. What changed? He’s admitted his plate discipline hasn’t been the same this year, and the stats back it up. His walk rate is down from a career high of 4.9% in 2024 to a career low of 2.9% this season. His previous career low walk rate was 4.6% in 2023. His strikeout rate ticked back up a bit from 20% last season to 21.1% this season. It’s still lower than his 24.7% strikeout rate during his Rookie of the Year season. His approach at the plate is being reflected elsewhere, too.
His ground ball rate is up from 48.7% last season to 52.1% this season. He’s also hitting fewer line drives and has a lower hard-hit ball rate. He’s chasing pitches that are leading to softer contact, and he’s hitting them into the ground or rolling over pitchers.
Harris still has his moments. His 43 RBIs are the third most on the team, and he’s on pace for about 78 this season. Ironically, in a career-worst season, he is on pace to set a new career high for runs batted in by 14. Statistically, he is better with runners in scoring position. He just isn’t able to help start a rally.
It’s not unreasonable to ponder if he’s not meshing well with the philosophy brought in from the new hitting coach, Tim Hyers. For three seasons under the previous coach, Kevin Seitzer, he batted .285 with a .469 slugging percentage.
Seitzer is now in Seattle, where the team’s OPS has risen from .687 last season to .728 this season. It could be a coincidence, but there is some pretty strong evidence to support that there are hitters benefiting from his arrival to their team this year and some who are missing him on their team.
A new hitting coach is an obvious solution, but it’s not a guaranteed fix either. This isn’t meant to imply that Seitzer is the only coach who works for Harris – far from it. Finding a hitting coach that is better for Harris, and let’s be honest, nearly the entire Braves lineup, isn’t easy. The next two or three hitting coaches could also flop.
Regardless of it all, it’s a shame this discussion even has to be had. I don’t think Harris is done for, like the angry echo chamber that is social media does. I can’t imagine being on his end for that, so I hope he just isn’t seeing it. He’s only 24 years old. In theory, he’s not even in his prime years yet.
His previous seasons have earned him the chance to show that’s who he really is. The Braves need to help him in that effort. His lack of performance at the plate only hurts them, too.
