49ers at Buccaneers: How to watch, odds, expert picks with San Francisco favored in Christian McCaffrey’s return

Can Baker Mayfield catch a break? The 29-year-old is playing the best ball of his career and wasn’t slowed a bit by losing his top two wide receivers. His reward? A string of heartbreakers, and now home-underdog Tampa Bay gets to be the first team this season to face the 49ers with Christian McCaffrey.

Worse still for the Buccaneers, San Francisco had a week to heal its supporting cast and is 43-17 coming out of the bye under Kyle Shannahan. No wonder the spread is so wide.

But Mayfield has taken on all comers in 2024, leading the league in touchdown passes and throwing for the second-most yards. The Buccaneers have kept the pressure off their quarterback, and he’s responded by leading the offense to top-5 rankings in yards and points per game, even as he was forced to replace Mike Evans and Chris Godwin with Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard.

The @CadeOtton Show continues 🙌

📺: #TBvsKC on ESPN/ABC pic.twitter.com/rC4EYLvN58

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) November 5, 2024

Mayfield’s also using his legs to do damage this season, especially when keeping drives alive on third down. Mayfield’s 14 third-down scampers are the most in the NFL, and a league-leading six have gone for more than 10 yards. Expect to see him run against the Niners, as San Francisco has been brutal against scrambles this season. They’ve seen only eight but have allowed 96 yards and a touchdown.

That said, the Niners have firepower, and their most successful formation (two running backs, one tight end) is Tampa’s weakness. The Bucs have allowed more than eight yards per carry against that alignment, so expect a lot of it with McCaffrey’s return. If the trends hold, it will be long possessions and ground gashes for San Francisco and a stat sheet bonanza for Mayfield as the Bucs play catch-up all day.