Thank God it’s Friday at the old late night coffee shop serving all of the libations you’re looking for to get your weekend started right. Josh left things sparkling for us on Thursday so be sure you clean up and leave things the same when he returns on Monday night.

You’re probably wearing a coat as Fall sets in or at least a light jacket. We had a time change and….well, let’s just say it’s been a doozy of a week over here. So much has been going on that there’s a real chance you missed the Steamer projections dropping at FanGraphs this week.

That’s right y’all, we finally have some numbers to play with for next season. So each Fantasy Friday for the next few weeks I’ll be doing a deep dive on what that projection system sees for a Cubs star. We’ll start off with the man who has as good of a case as anyone to be be the face of this current version of the Chicago Cubs: Dansby Swanson.

Dansby Swanson was signed to a seven-year, $177 million deal before the 2023 season. It’s the second largest deal ever signed by the Chicago Cubs, squarely between the eight-year $184 million the team signed Jason Heyward to and the six-year $155 million deal that Jon Lester inked. We’ll take a broader look at the deal, Dansby’s production in blue pinstripes to date, and his projection for next season — a season that happens to coincide with the final year of Jed Hoyer’s contract as President of Baseball Operations — below, however first some tunes.

There aren’t really that many musicians in existence who have had a career with quite the range that Bruce Hornsby has (pun, maybe slightly intended). The man played piano with the Grateful Dead. He’s also released 19 separate albums and/or compilations with a variety of collaborators. I started going down a Bruce Hornsby rabbit hole as I wrote this piece because I originally intended on focusing on a B-side called Swan Song, and who knows, maybe we’ll go back there some day. But it was impossible to write a Bruce Hornsby piece without paying homage to where it all started.

Hornsby’s first single was his biggest hit. It landed at number one on the Billboard Hot 100 after it was released. That song is: The Way it Is:

It’s a gorgeous piano riff with an unmistakable beat at the top, and a scathing commentary on social issues that honestly, don’t seem to have changed all that much since 1986:

Standing in line, marking time
Waiting for the welfare dime
‘Cause they can’t buy a job
The man in the silk suit hurries by
As he catches the poor old lady’s eyes
Just for fun he says, “Get a job”

That’s just the way it is
Some things will never change
That’s just the way it is
Ah, but don’t you believe them

It’s a powerful song that’s been covered a lot. Perhaps the most unlikely sampling in pop culture is Tupac’s Changes, which was originally recorded in 1992 but wasn’t released until 1998 — two years after Tupac’s death:

From Tupac’s version:

I got love for my brother, but we can never go nowhere
Unless we share with each other
We gotta start makin’ changes
Learn to see me as a brother instead of two distant strangers

And that’s how it’s supposed to be
How can the devil take a brother, if he’s close to me?
I’d love to go back to when we played as kids
But things changed, and that’s the way it is

Come on, come on
That’s just the way it is
Things will never be the same
That’s just the way it is
Ooh, yeah

The Way it Is and Changes demonstrate clearly the idea of a world where we just have to accept the all of the flaws and slights. It is no accident that it resonated as much in 1998 as it did in 1986. Both songs rightfully won awards. It’s no surprise that it’s not hard to find additional contemporary remixes, samplings and updates — perhaps some things truly will never change.

One more time, some lyrics from the original 1986 recording:

Said hey, little boy, you can’t go where the others go
‘Cause you don’t look like they do
Said hey, old man, how can you stand to think that way?
Did you really think about it before you made the rules?
He said, son

That’s just the way it is
Some things will never change
That’s just the way it is
Ah, but don’t you believe them

One more time for emphasis: “Ah, but don’t you believe them.”

Back here in baseball stats-land there are all sorts of priors we could question as just being the way it is. Jed Hoyer’s role as the architect of this Cubs team, Dansby Swanson’s role as the face of this version of the Cubs, and yes, the projections themselves — are they accurate? If not, why? Is there more there? Let’s dig in.

Steamer projections are updated frequently so the numbers below are as of this posting, but let’s take Dansby Swanson’s stats since 2021 and add in Steamer to evaluate how Cubs fans might expect their star player to perform in 2024:

The plate appearance rebound for Swanson seems correct to me. Obviously anyone can get injured, but he’s been on the field more often than not in his career. However, I do find the more modest increase in counting stats like RBI and HR a bit puzzling. It could just be a reflection of Dansby being 31 and aging curves, however, it could also be a reflection of the players around him and a concern that the overall offense will not perform to a level that could allow him the opportunity to drive in runs.

Perhaps the stat I’m most perplexed by here is the FanGraph’s WAR Steamer projects for Dansby. After all, WAR is also a counting stat and Dansby derives a lot of his WAR from defense. Steamer seems skeptical of that defense. I’m not generally a fan of looking at the Offensive and Defensive WAR numbers on FanGraphs on their own but in the context of improvements or declines, they are meaningful.

It seems pretty clear that Steamer is projection that Dansby’s offensive WAR holds steady at last season while his defensive WAR…declines by a factor of three back to his lowest tally since the pandemic shortened season. That seems wrong to me. Like I’m inclined to take the over on the offensive WAR but could see it being close. The wheels would have to completely fall off the defensive bus for him to revert to 2020.

Overall, I think Dansby’s Steamer projection is being pulled down by two seasons that have had some injury issues and a very weird projected defensive collapse. What say you? Will the Cubs shortstop overperform those estimates in 2025 or is Steamer accurate?

As you place your vote don’t forget to leave a tip for the wait staff, they do great work for these late week BCB After Dark sessions and we want Josh and crew to know we appreciate them at least as much on Friday as we do on Monday.