Getty

The Atlanta Braves can’t catch a break.

Rookie right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery on Monday, ending what had been a promising 2025 season and adding yet another massive dent to Atlanta’s already thinning rotation. It’s the kind of loss that doesn’t just affect the now—it casts a shadow on the Braves’ plans deep into 2026 and maybe beyond.

The procedure, performed by Dr. Keith Meister in Arlington, Texas, confirmed the worst: a complete reconstruction of Smith-Shawver’s ulnar collateral ligament. The 22-year-old will now embark on the grueling rehab process that typically sidelines pitchers for at least 12 to 14 months.

“He’s got a nice career ahead of him,” manager Brian Snitker told reporters. “This is just a little setback. Still a very young player. He’ll have a really good career.”

That may be true, but in the short term, Smith-Shawver’s absence creates a real problem for a Braves team that’s already walking the tightrope in the NL playoff race. The team has just got back ace Spencer Strider to his own UCL injury, is waiting on Reynaldo López to return from shoulder surgery, and now must survive without its breakout rookie.

Atlanta’s Pitching Depth Is Wearing Thin

Getty

Through nine starts, Smith-Shawver had a 3.86 ERA and had shown flashes of front-line potential. He was cruising through his first seven outings with a 2.33 ERA before things unraveled against the Nationals and Phillies, the latter of which ended with him exiting after just 2 2/3 innings and reporting he felt a “pop” in his elbow.

The Braves rotation now consists of Chris Sale, a not-quite-right Spencer Strider, rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes, and Bryce Elder. It’s a group that lacks a ceiling and, outside of Sale, has little margin for error.

And it only gets more concerning from there. The Triple-A depth isn’t exactly overflowing with options. Davis Daniel and Nathan Wiles are serviceable arms but not exactly playoff-rotation material. Hurston Waldrep, a former first-rounder, has flamed out spectacularly in Gwinnett. Non-roster options like Ian Anderson, Zach Thompson, and José Suarez haven’t inspired much confidence either. Suarez is even hurt.

Simply put, the Braves need arms, and they need them fast. Whether that means buying at the deadline or punting on the season depends on how the next few weeks unfold. But if they continue their slide—Monday’s win over the Milwaukee Brewers snapped a seven-game losing streak—Atlanta may have no choice but to be sellers.

Long-Term Ramifications for Smith-Shawver and the Braves

For Smith-Shawver, this was a major detour just as he was building momentum. After brief stints in 2023 and 2024, he entered this year with rookie eligibility and was off to a great start: 2.33 ERA, 24.8% strikeout rate, and a .209 batting average against through his first 38 2/3 innings.

Now, he’ll accrue significant league service time and pay while rehabbing, inching closer to arbitration and free agency while not throwing a pitch. Because he spent only 16 days in the minors this year, he also retains his final option year—something the Braves may be thankful for when he’s finally healthy again.

Best case? Smith-Shawver returns by mid-2026. Worst case? Atlanta doesn’t get another full season from him until 2027.

Either way, it’s a brutal development for a Braves club that looked like a contender in March but suddenly feels like a team in transition.

And if this is a lost year, Smith-Shawver’s injury might be the moment we all point back to as the tipping point.

Alvin Garcia Alvin Garcia is a Puerto Rican MLB writer for Heavy.com. His work has appeared on FanSided, LWOS, NewsBreak, Athlon Sports, and Yardbarker, with coverage spanning all teams across the league. More about Alvin Garcia

More Heavy on Braves

Loading more stories