he Boston Red Sox entered Monday having won three of their last four games, including two wins in a three-game set against their arch-rivals, the New York Yankees, over the weekend.
But that short burst of success can’t change the fact that the underachieving Red Sox, expected to contend for an American League East pennant this year, have been a major disappointment.
Heading into a three-game home set against the second-place team in the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays, the Red Sox remained three games under .500 and 8 1/2 games off the Yankees’ pace.
The Red Sox have plenty of issues to analyze, but one in particular has been perhaps the most glaring: starting pitching.
More specifically, starting pitching in the first inning. With a first-inning ERA of 7.12, second only to the 12-53 Colorado Rockies for worst in MLB (8.58), Boston pitchers have repeatedly put their team in an immediate hole and forced the Red Sox hitters to play from behind in game after game.
What can the Red Sox do to solve this problem? One answer would be to acquire a pitcher who does not give up runs in the first inning. And there is one possible trade the Red Sox could make that would accomplish that goal, while costing Boston almost nothing.
Even Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet has been shaky in the first inning, allowing five runs in 14 first innings, a 3.21 ERA. His overall 2.35 ERA is ninth in the AL. Other Red Sox pitchers have been much worse.
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Brayan Bello has allowed four first inning runs in nine innings. Walker Buehler has given up nine in 10 first innings. Lucas Giolito has also allowed nine, but in only seven first innings. Tanner Houck, now on the injured list, allowed a staggering 11 runs in just 11 innings to start off games.
In total, Red Sox starters have given up 54 runs (53 earned) in 65 innings at the start of games.
There are currently only four major league pitchers who this year have yet to allow a single run in the first inning.
Three of them — Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Michael Wacha of the Kansas City Royals, and Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies — are very unlikely to be available in trade. And if any were, they would come at a high price.
But what about the fourth one — JP Sears of the team formerly known as the Oakland Athletics?
In 13 starts, Sears has yet to be touched for a first-inning run, earned or not. In fact, Sears has allowed just six hits, none for extra bases, and two walks while striking out 13 in the first innings of games.
An 11th-round draft pick of the Seattle Mariners in 2017 out of The Citadel, Sears was traded to the Yankees later that year. Debuting in 2022, he pitched just seven games for New York before being traded again, this time to Oakland.
In addition to turning in shutdown first innings this season, Sears has been a workhorse throughout his career. He has made all 13 of his starts this season after making 32 in each of the previous two seasons.
Pitching for just $770,000 this season, only $10,000 over the MLB minimum, Sears would represent a minimal financial commitment for Boston. He also comes with three more years of team control.
Despite his first-inning dominance, Sears has a somewhat bloated 5.21 ERA this season. But that could work to the Red Sox’ advantage because they likely could obtain him with one or two mid-level prospects — again, a low cost to Boston.
But for the Red Sox offense, whose 330 runs are fourth-most in MLB, a pitcher who can give them a chance to score first by blanking the opposition out of the gate obviously gives them a much better chance to win.
A 2020 Society for American Baseball Research study of 73 previous seasons found that teams that lead after the first inning win about 70 percent of all games.
