What a wonderful game, all the way around. On his 25th birthday, Spencer Schwellenbach was masterful yet again, going 6 and a third, striking out 11 and walking none. He held them scoreless on 5 hits. The bullpen (Daysbel, Lee, and Montero) shut them out the rest of the way. PDQ is one of the most impressive young pitchers I remember in my now long Braves fandom.
Offensively there was a lot to like. Ronald had two hits, including a two run homer off Walker Buehler. That alone was worth the price of admission, as it evoked memories of the grand slam he hit off Ferris in the 2018 playoffs. I’d say Ronald is back. His OPS is 1.174. Riley also homered, Olson doubled, and El Oso Grande had a couple of hits. Now here’s something you might not believe if you were not watching: Michael Harris II had 3(!) hits on the day. I’m not going to declare him back (he’s got a looong way to go), but his OPS is now up to .611. Ozzie didn’t get a hit, but he did earn a base on balls, which in some ways I find even more encouraging.
Still, the Braves finish May with a record of 27-30, 8.5 games out of first and 5 games out of the final wild card spot. That’s not good!
But as bad as the Braves stand here on May 31, it’s not hopeless. There is still a long season ahead. On the last day of May, 2022, the Braves were 23-27, 10.5 games out of first place. They then had a terrific June, cutting the lead to 3.5 games by the end of the month. They finally caught the Mets in September, winning 101 games and the division (and sweeping that memorable series at Truist in the last weekend).
Let’s look at 2021: on the last day of May, our guys were 25-26, 4 games out of first. But unlike 2022, it got worse from there. By June 16, they had fallen 5 games below .500 and 8 games out of first. Even on August 1, they were 3 games below .500 and 5 games out of first. You might remember how that season turned out.
I remember well another dismal May. After the remarkable, magical worst-to-first season of 1991, in the first third of 1992 the team had regressed. On the last day of May, they were 23-27, 5 games out of first. But then they had a terrific June (19-6) and went on to win the division by 8 games.
Speaking of 1991: Unlike 2022, 2021, and 1992, they were in pretty good shape at the end of May—6 games over .500 and only a half game out of first. Best the team had looked in many years. But then reality set in. By the All Star break in July, the team had dropped to 39-40 and 9.5 games out of first. Right after the break, though, the team was torrid, and they went on to win the division in the last weekend.
While we’re reflecting on in-season turnarounds, let’s not forget 1993: they were 9 games out of first as late as August 11. One month later they were up by 1 game. They went on to win 104 games and edge the Giants by a game in one of the all-time great pennant races.
Am I predicting a similar turnaround this season? Certainly not. Unless several guys in the lineup up their production substantially in the next month, and also the bullpen gets more reliable, it won’t happen. But’s it’s not impossible! We still don’t know how good this team is. They may turn out to be mediocre, or even terribad, but this is still the team that most preseason forecasts and projections had winning well over 90 games.
I do realize how incredibly frustrating this team has been and how excruciating some of the losses have been. You are certainly within your rights to decry the state of this team, and it’s entirely reasonable to expect them to remain at or below .500 and finish well out of the playoffs.
But as for me and my house, we choose to remain hopeful. We have lived through the magic of those remarkable in-season turnarounds in the recent and not so recent past. Why not expect it again?
Tomorrow is June 1. Bryce Elder against Garrett Crochet. Time to get a streak going.
