The Chicago Cubs are still waiting on the season debut of 27-year-old righty Javier Assad, who now has two solid campaigns under his belt with the big-league squad. Assad started 29 games for the Cubs in 2024, notching 147.0 innings and 123 strikeouts. His 3.73 ERA and 1.40 WHIP convey just how mixed the results were.

Assad began the season strong but saw his production buckle in the final months. While his overall output was quite strong, Assad did little to enshrine his place in the Cubs’ rotation long term. Especially with new depth coming up through the pipeline.

Top Cubs prospect Cade Horton made his MLB debut over the weekend. Assad, meanwhile, is on ice after he re-aggravated an oblique injury during a Triple-A rehab assignment three weeks ago. Chicago’s rotation depth was a huge question going into the season, but it feels like Craig Counsell mostly has a handle on his five-man core right now.

Does that put Assad on the outs before he even registers a big-league pitch in 2025?

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Javier Assad might not return to an open rotation spot as Cubs invest in top prospects

Assad’s red-hot start and passable ERA disguised some concerning metrics last season. He finished in the third percentile for whiff rate and the 24th percentile for walks. If you can’t miss bats or command your pitches, well… it’s tough sledding in the big leagues. Assad is a groundball pitcher who does not force enough groundballs and he lacks high end, punch-out material.

Compound that with ongoing injury woes, and it’s fair to wonder when (or if) Assad returns to the Cubs’ regular rotation. It has been a challenging season for Chicago on the injury front, with Justin Steele undergoing Tommy John surgery and Shōta Imanaga recently suffering a hamstring ailment, which put him on the 15-day IL.

Those injuries have unearthed some unexpected depth, however. Cade Horton made a strong first impression over the weekend. He struggled his second time through the Mets lineup, but an elite slider gives him a solid foundation to build upon. He is someone the Cubs ought to invest in with so much short-term uncertainty.

Meanwhile, 25-year-old Ben Brown has put enough positives on tape to earn an extended look from Counsell. Factor in unexpectedly strong campaigns from veterans Colin Rea and Matthew Boyd, and Chicago’s rotation is in a good spot. Imanaga will get back before Assad. Jameson Taillon is a known commodity on the North Side. There just isn’t a ton of room — not much of a need — for Assad right now.

That’s not to say Chicago won’t give him another shot once he eventually works his way back, but it’s certainly an uphill battle for Assad to prove his worth and overcome the obstacles in his path. He’s 27, so we shouldn’t close the book yet, but the Cubs’ rotation will only get stronger as injuries subside and trade options come into focus. Assad’s path to a meaningful role may end up going through the bullpen at this rate.