A top MLB insider reports that some around the league believe that if the Baltimore Orioles want to keep Gunnar Henderson after 2028, they may have to give him the biggest contract of all time.
The $765 million contract the New York Mets gave Juan Soto and the $500 million deal the Toronto Blue Jays forked over to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. completely reset the market. It has sent projections for future free agents skyrocketing. Especially for those players who are truly special.
It was something ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan covered in a new column this week. The veteran reporter sought out the opinions of executives and fellow insiders about which players will get the next mega-deal. And at the very top was one player: Orioles All-Star Gunnar Henderson. Passan admits that some executives believe it would be a “long shot” for him to surpass Soto’s stunning deal. But he is still the odds-on favorite to set a new record in a few years.
“Henderson was the one player mentioned by every executive as the best bet to beat Soto,” Passan wrote. “And even then, executives said, it’s a long shot. Henderson debuted at 21 and will reach free agency after the 2028 season at 27. He plays a far more important position than Soto’s right field, and even if Henderson does eventually move to third base, the positional advantage still will be true.
“In his two full seasons, Henderson has already put up more than 15 WAR. Including a nine-win showing last year that was better than any year Soto ever posted. Even then, Henderson needs more years of consistent quality before he can be looking at $600 million. Let alone $765 million.”
Henderson earned All-Star honors for the first time in 2024. He is just 23 and hasn’t scratched the surface of his full potential.
If he can continue to grow and become an MVP-level talent, he would have a good shot at beating Soto’s record in three years. The big question is, will the Orioles be willing to pay that price?