When you ask Atlanta Braves fans about Matt Olson, you will get a pretty polarized response. Some fans will never forgive him for even trying to replace Freddie Freeman and/or are frustrated with his rather streaky nature as a hitter. Others love the power he brings to the table and remember quite well when he finished fourth in MVP voting in 2023. You won’t find opinions in-between on the guy and there is good reason for that including his start this season.
Hitters like Olson can be feast or famine. When the home runs are coming regularly, fans can ignore a .250 batting average and opposing pitchers have to be a bit more careful leading to better results overall. When Olson is scuffling, there are a lot of uncompetitive at-bats, rally-killing strikeouts, and double plays that have fans wanting to pull their hair out.
At first glance, 2025 looks like a down year for Olson. His .222 average and .753 OPS don’t inspire much confidence on paper. However, a closer look at his batted ball profile suggests that Olson is due to break out in a massive way this season.
Matt Olson is just needs to starting lifting the ball again to start going off in 2025
If you look at Olson’s batted ball profile, it is honestly confusing that his counting numbers look as rough as they do. His average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage are all in at least the top 10% in baseball. He is walking a ton and not striking out much, so what the hell is going on?
Well, the biggest culprit is Olson’s ground ball rate. From 2017-2024, Olson’s ground ball rate was mostly in that 35-40% range. Fairly typical and he certainly hit enough balls in the air to take advantage of his hard contact rates. Unfortunately, Olson’s 2025 ground ball rate sits at a pretty dreadful 50.6% which is easily a career-worst mark. For those following at home, ground balls are not good for taking advantage of hard contact. Ground balls bad.
Fortunately, Olson’s ground ball rate is also so out of character that there is just no way it sticks over 162 games. He is going to start hitting more line drives that aren’t pointed right at defenders and fly balls that don’t inexplicably die at the warning track. The track record and underlying peripherals are just too good for that to happen. Once Olson just starts getting under the ball a little bit more, all the numbers suggest that he is going to start doing a lot of damage.
