Red Sox insiders acknowledge increasingly likely Lucas Giolito reality

The Boston Red Sox’s starting rotation has nearly reached full strength after a rough stretch of injuries from spring training.

Brayan Bello made his 2025 debut on April 22 and Lucas Giolito shouldn’t be far behind. The Red Sox have awaited Giolito’s debut since they signed him ahead of the 2024 season, but an unforeseen elbow injury that required season-ending surgery and a pulled hamstring from spring training have kept the veteran on the sidelines.

Giolito is expected to finally make his Red Sox debut sometime during their April 29-May 1 series against the Blue Jays. It would be hard to argue Boston has gotten its money’s worth out of Giolito’s contract, since he’ll debut over a month into the second season of the pact. But Red Sox insiders Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive and the “Fenway Rundown” podcast shared that he may be around for a third year.

“It was supposed to be a one-year deal for 2024, but there is an option for next year. If he throws fewer than 140 innings this year — which, we’re getting close to that being a lock — the Red Sox have control over him for 2026 with a $14 million club option,” Cotillo said.

Red Sox have $14 million club option on Lucas Giolito’s contract if he pitches fewer than 140 innings this season

Things are setting up in a way where the Red Sox are going to have control of Lucas Giolito in 2026. Breaking down an unlikely scenario that’s coming true on a new @FenwayRundown with @Sean_McAdam: pic.twitter.com/tNZploUDHZ

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) April 22, 2025

Giolito has already missed a month of work, which he could’ve used to reach his innings threshold. Garrett Crochet has made five starts as of April 23, and McAdam pointed out that if Giolito had been in the rotation all this time and averaged five to six innings per start, he could’ve accumulated 25-30 innings of work that would have helped him reach the 140 inning minimum that would guarantee him free agency in 2026.

The righty is also just one year removed from the internal brace procedure and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2023. There are bound to be setbacks after UCL surgery, and since Giolito is so rusty against big league bats, it could further cut his innings this season.

The Red Sox’s decision to use their option should ultimately come down to how well Giolito pitches. If he posts the bounce-back season he and Boston have hoped for, the Sox should exercise their option to keep him around for cheap. Walker Buehler is only on a one-year deal, and if Boston doesn’t extend or re-sign him, it could be further motivation to keep Giolito for another year to lessen its needs in the free agent or trade market.

Giolito’s impending return will give the Red Sox the rotation they envisioned during spring training. It will be interesting to see how the year-plus on the shelf affects Giolito’s performance on the hill.

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