The Chicago Cubs are certified good, currently 12-8 with a 1.5-game lead over the second-place Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central. This roster has all the makings of a legitimate contender in the National League. Craig Counsell is an elite in-game manager (sorry, Brew Crew) and the offense is miles ahead of where it was a year ago.

Why the sudden leap in productivity? Well, there’s credit to go around. Seiya Suzuki looks like an All-Star. Michael Busch is taking The Leap. And, there’s this little-known outfielder named Kyle Tucker raking baseballs like prime Ken Griffey Jr.

Tucker’s arrival was the biggest storyline of the MLB offseason aside from the Juan Soto saga. The Houston Astros cashed in on the former champ, acquiring MLB’s No. 55 prospect in Cam Smith, as well as former All-Star Isaac Paredes as part of a robust return package. The Cubs netted Tucker, a perennial 30-home run and 100-RBI threat with plus defense in the outfield.

The early returns are excellent. Tucker’s batting .313 with a 1.027 OPS, five home runs, and 18 RBI through 20 games. He’s on an MVP trajectory for the Cubs, giving them the offensive centerpiece Counsell’s lineup so desperately lacked last season.

It isn’t all sunshine and rainbows, however, as Tucker’s tenure in Wrigleyville might not last much longer.

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MLB execs believe Kyle Tucker is as good as gone from Cubs next offseason

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand interviewed several MLB executives about what the future holds for Kyle Tucker. The Cubs would presumably love to line up an extension, but the price is exorbitant and Tucker has very little motivation to hammer out a deal before free agency, when the open market can drive up his price even further.

“If the Cubs don’t extend him, that may go down as an all-time terrible trade,” an AL exec said.

“He’s likely to be the best player on the market by a decent margin; I can’t imagine him giving up the opportunity for a bidding war to potentially take place for his services,” opined an NL exec.

“We are talking about a left-handed hitter who produces similar WAR and more consistent offensive value [than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.],” said another AL exec.

So, to be blunt, Tucker costs too much to extend and he stands to gain too much from taking things into free agency. Even if the 28-year-old enjoys Chicago, as he seems to, baseball is a business. And, when it comes to the business of baseball, few GMs have a worse reputation than Jed Hoyer. The Cubs just do not spend on this level historically. Tom Ricketts would need to clear quite possibly the third-largest check in MLB history, behind only Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto.

Is he willing to do that? Better not count on it.

Tucker would be worth every penny if he can bring superstar offensive production to the heart of Chicago’s lineup for the next decade. The Cubs are one of baseball’s most profitable teams, located in an upscale neighborhood of a huge media market. There isn’t really an excuse not to pace the market and win a bidding war, but Rickett and Hoyer will come up with one. Fear not.

If Chicago lets Tucker slip through their fingers after a single season — especially if that season ends short of a World Series title — it will, in fact, go down as a horrendously lopsided trade. The Cubs sacrificed significant future upside to take a swing on Tucker. It was the right move, but now Chicago needs to put their money where their mouth is and back it up. Color me skeptical.