Roman Anthony leaving Red Sox no choice but to make impossible decisions

The best player in the Boston Red Sox organization might still be in Triple-A Worcester right now. That’s probably a hyperbolic way to describe Roman Anthony, the top prospect in baseball not named Roki Sasaki entering the season (which feels like “cheating” somehow for the Dodgers newcomer). However, what he’s been doing to start the season in the minors, particularly amid the big-league club’s struggles offensively, is eye-popping.

Just the raw numbers themselves are quite impressive, posting a .283/.441/.500/.941 slash line with two homers, two doubles, a triple and 13 walks to 15 strikeouts in 59 plate appearances. It’s also a continuation of what he did in 35 games at Triple-A last year, posting a .982 OPS with 16 extra-base hits in 164 plate appearances.

What really stands out, though, are the underlying metrics with the Red Sox top prospect. Thomas Nestico of TJ Stats has been keeping track of minor league tracking metrics — and Anthony’s page is a sea of red as he’s been tearing the cover off of the ball.

Roman Anthony is posting some absolutely absurd batted ball metrics to start the season in AAA

Yes, that says 38.7 Barrel% pic.twitter.com/TIbEHZ5sUG

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 16, 2025

While everything outside of the whiff percentage — which Anthony has balanced with a 22% walk rate — all of that should have Red Sox fans drooling. The 38.7% barrel rate is the most jarring and awesome part of the profile, largely because that’s just unheard of. As Justin Havens of Underdog Fantasy pointed out, only two players in MLB had a barrel rate over 20% at the end of last season: Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.

Even in the early-season sample size and using only a minimum plate appearance qualifier of 10, Anthony’s barrel rate would still blow away the rest of baseball. Ivan Herrera sits first in that department at just 31.3%, finding the barrel 7.4% less of the time than Anthony is at Triple-A. Among more often used players, Judge again leads the way, but at 26.1%.

Obviously, the jump to the majors should see those numbers somewhat drop for Anthony. At the same time, he’s clearly ready for the majors and he’s gone from knocking on the door in Boston to virtually busting it down.

The only problem is that it leaves the Red Sox with an impossible decision to make now.

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Roman Anthony forcing Red Sox to call him up sooner rather than later

Put simply, who are the Red Sox moving out of the outfield to make way for Roman Anthony? With the way he’s hitting and with the pedigree he has as the top prospect in baseball, it’s something Boston absolutely has to do, service time manipulation be damned. This is a team that was constructed to contend and Anthony unequivocally looks the part of an offensive piece to help them do just that.

However, finding a spot for him in the outfield is easier said than done. Jarren Duran, despite a slow start after last year’s breakout All-Star campaign, is a stalwart in the leadoff spot and isn’t going anywhere. Wilyer Abreu has cooled off after being shot out of a cannon to start the year, but is still hitting extremely well along with Gold Glove defense in right field. Then there’s Ceddanne Rafaela, who has been by far the worst of this group at the plate but also might be the best defensive center fielder in baseball.

Throw in lefty masher Rob Refsnyder and even the thought of Masataka Yoshida as he remains on the IL, and it’s a crowded Red Sox outfield to try and insert Anthony into.

For me, Rafaela is ultimately the easy choice to move out of the group of everyday starters, but largely because you can get him on the field more. His bat, specifically with his bottom percentile chase rate, isn’t good enough to justify him being in the lineup every day right now, specifically over Anthony, locked into one position.

That last part is the most crucial, though. Rafaela has the superhuman defensive ability to be a super utility player, taking days in the outfield and even in the middle infield to give other guys rest. That would then allow a young player of his ilk to continue to get semi-consistent at-bats, be a factor defensively and not be entirely pushed out. That’s not an option that exists with Duran, Abreu or Refsnyder.

At the same time, for a Red Sox team that has been woeful defensively for the past few years, taking an all-world glove out of centerfield is easier said than done. However, Anthony has made himself undeniable at this point. He is Thanos wearing the gauntlet saying, “I am inevitable.” It’s going to coincide with a tough decision to push someone out of the lineup, but the Red Sox have reached the point where the value of Anthony is more important than trying to keep things comfortable.

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