There were many reasons to be encouraged by the signing of three-time Cy Young winner Justin Velander this offseason.
The San Francisco Giants needed a veteran arm and Verlander was drawn by the chance to start and the new leadership, helmed by former player Buster Posey as the franchise’s president of baseball operations.
For the 42-year-old right-hander, his pursuit of joining the 300-win club is personal. But, if he could help the Giants advance their hopes of contending for the playoffs, then it would be a win-win over everyone.
Plus, Verlander wasn’t dealing with an injury to start the season, as he has the past two years. However, the early returns for Verlander haven’t been as hoped, even as the Giants have one of the best records in baseball.
Take Tuesday’s 6-4 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies. For the second straight game he got into the sixth inning. But he allowed eight hits, four earned runs and three walks in 5.2 innings against a potent Phillies lineup. Worse, he only struck out one batter. While he kept the game close, he took the loss.
He threw 104 pitches on Tuesday, but only 61 were strikes. His fastball was just below 96 mph, but he threw five different pitches and changed speeds as low as 79 mph.
Verlander has put together three starts with at least five innings. But he’s been giving up earned runs at an alarming rate since he allowed just two of them in his first start of the season on March 29.
He now has a 6.75 ERA through four starts, giving up 14 earned runs and 24 hits in 18.2 innings. He’s struck out 17 and walked nine. The concerning part is the opponent batting average. Batters are hitting .308 against him.
It’s early, but it’s notable because the last time he finished any season with that kind of opponent batting average was in 2005 when he had a .313 average in two starts.
His OBA has gone up each of the four complete seasons, going back to a .150 average in 2020. He allowed batters to hit .274 against him last year.
Some of his Statcast numbers are in the red. His chase rate (32.5%) is in the 77th percentile and his whiff rate (32.6%) is in the 83rd percentile. His strikeout rate (25.8%) is in the 65th percentile.
It’s an early sample. Just four starts. But the major numbers are trending in the wrong direction for one of baseball’s legends — at least for now.
