Chris Sale’s 2025 season isn’t off to the Cy Young-caliber start Braves fans hoped for. Through three outings, the 36-year-old lefty has shown flashes of his dominant self but has also struggled with command, consistency, and perhaps most noticeably—velocity.

Sale, who won the 2024 NL Cy Young Award with a resurgent campaign, has seen a dip in his four-seam fastball velocity early this year. Through his first three starts, his four-seamer has averaged 93.2 mph—down from 94.9 mph a season ago. In his most recent outing against the Phillies, Sale’s fastball dipped further, averaging just 92.7 mph. That marks his lowest single-game four-seam average since the start of last season.

“It just hasn’t clicked yet,” Sale admitted. “It’s frustrating, obviously.”

The inconsistency is what raises eyebrows among Braves fans. Sale’s fastball topped out at 97.3 mph in the first inning Tuesday but didn’t climb above 93.7 mph the rest of the game. His velocity also declined inning-by-inning: 93.9 mph in the first, 91.3 mph in the second, and 92.1 mph in the third. By the fifth, he was throwing more sliders than fastballs.

Will Chris Sale be able to return to his 2024 self?

The concerning trend is reminiscent of September 2024, when Sale began to experience back issues. During that stretch, his fastball velocity similarly dropped. While there’s no confirmed injury this time, Sale’s arm angle has dropped from 11 degrees last year to seven this season—potentially a sign of lingering discomfort or a mechanical issue.

“He’s very in tune with his body,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “I think the more he gets out there, the better he’ll be.”

Still, it’s hard to overlook the fact that nearly 28% of his fastballs this season have been under 92 mph, compared to just 5.1% last year. That’s not a stat you can brush aside for a pitcher whose success has long been tied to his power and deception. Sale’s early results reflect the struggle: a 6.14 ERA and a .386 BABIP-against in three starts. While his peripherals (3.94 xERA) suggest he’s been a bit unlucky, Sale’s game scores (53, 51, 33) and noticeable velo dip add fuel to speculation that something’s off.

It could be a dead-arm phase, a delivery tweak, or just early-season rust. The Braves, mired in a surprising 2-8 start, need answers soon. Sale’s next start is tentatively set for Sunday against the Rays, and all eyes will be on that radar gun. Whether this is a brief blip or the beginning of a more concerning trend, one thing’s clear: Sale’s velocity—once his calling card—is under the microscope. And until it returns to form, so is he.