Will the Orioles really trade Ryan Mountcastle this year?

Nearly all winter, Orioles fans were subjected to speculation about the future of first baseman Ryan Mountcastle.

With two years remaining until free agency and with the right hander coming off a down year in 2024, there were many rumors about the Orioles’ intention to trade the first baseman to make room for one of their top prospects on the major league roster.

While we didn’t get that trade over the winter, if MLB insider Bob Nightengale is to believed, that trade isn’t entirely off the table.

According to Nightengale, who noted in one of his recent columns at USA Today, the Orioles have been making teams aware that Mountcastle is available in potential trade talks.

Nightengale notes that the Orioles are doing so in order to clear space for infielder Coby Mayo.

Moving Mountcastle to make space for Mayo makes a ton of sense, in theory.

Mayo is still a top 15 prospect in the entire sport and while he failed in his first taste of the majors last year and wasn’t inspiring during spring training, he has crushed minor league pitching and it doesn’t look like he has much left to learn from being stuck at Triple-A.

Orioles reportedly interested in trading first baseman Ryan Mountcastle

But that said, there are definitely aspects of Mayo’s game that are concerning.

He’s still a strikeout machine, as his 25% whiff rate in Triple-A last year translated to a mark of 47.8% during his stint in the majors. He’s looked a bit better in a handful of games with Norfolk this year but it’s a very small sample.

At some point, the Orioles do need to decide whether they’re going to give Mayo the opportunity to play in Baltimore, or not. Mountcastle doesn’t hit free agency until after 2026 so in theory, Mayo is blocked. And with Heston Kjerstad and Ryan O’Hearn with the big league club, there aren’t a ton of plate appearances available for Mayo in a DH role.

It’s not clear what kind of return Mountcastle would bring back. While he’s a solid first baseman, he’s not a superstar and with limited team control remaining he’s probably not bringing back much value. The entire point of moving Mountcastle, at least at this point, would be to clear space for Mayo. Which, if the Orioles truly believe in the kid and want to give him a full slate of plate appearances in 2025 to figure out if he’ll be here for the long term, that’s not a bad idea.

The Orioles offense is good enough to withstand the loss of Mountcastle and work with Mayo hitting in the back end, at least for now.

And with Gunnar Henderson due back before long, things should be fine. If Mayo is up, he’ll more than likely be the primary first baseman, with O’Hearn the primary DH and Kjerstad getting reps in the outfield thanks to the absence of Colton Cowser. When Cowser returns in a couple months, things get muddier but that’s a ways off.

And if Mayo gets 300 plate appearances and things aren’t working out, then the O’s can still shift one of O’Hearn or Kjerstad to first base and let the other work as a DH. The Orioles have enough outfield depth to be confident in the group in Baltimore.

At the end of the day, it’ll be tough to watch Mountcastle leave as he’s been a fan favorite for a while. But if that move creates an opportunity for Mayo and the rookie is able to capitalize and prove he’s ready, it’ll be a major win for the Orioles.