This offseason’s key reliever addition will start the season on the IL thanks to knee surgery. Can the former All-Star get healthy in time to make big contributions in 2025?

When the Orioles announced the signing of Andrew Kittredge back in January, it became the most universally praised move of the offseason.

After years of seeing how nasty Kittredge can be as a member of the Rays, Mike Elias brought in the former All-Star to make the O’s bullpen a true strength.

However, after discovering a knee injury that required surgery, Kittredge’s impact in 2025 is now a big unknown.

Under Mike Elias, the O’s have built a strong track record of bringing in outside relievers and maximizing their talents.

In 2022, the breakout stars were Jorge López, Cionel Pérez and Félix Bautista. In 2023, the O’s plucked Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb out of relative obscurity and turned them into valuable bullpen pieces.

After a rocky 2024 amongst the relief corps, Elias brought in the established Kittredge to join a healthy Bautista in rejuvenating this bullpen.

The 34-year-old veteran was coming off a 2024 season in St. Louis that saw him set a career high in appearances, come just short of setting a career high in innings, and put up a sub-3.00 ERA for the first time since 2021.

Kittredge also possesses a profile different than any of the Orioles’ other established relievers. Most of the O’s right-handed relievers are fastball-first pitchers, whether it’s Bautista and Seranthony Dominguez’s four-seamers, or Cano’s sinker.

Kittredge, on the other hand, throws his slider more than almost any other reliever in baseball. Last season, opponents hit only .177 off his breaking ball and swung through the slider 41% of the time.

The knee injury complicates Kittredge’s role this season, as he’ll join the likes of Grayson Rodriguez, Jorge Mateo and Kyle Bradish in starting the season on the IL.

As Roch Kubatko of MASN reported, the procedure was a “knee debridement,” which is a fancy way of saying he got his knee scoped.

The recovery should keep him off the mound through at least April and will probably require a rehab assignment after Kittredge only got into one spring training game.

The one known downside of Kittredge throughout his career is his propensity for injuries. He made only 31 appearances for Tampa between 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery.

Prior to his UCL falling apart, he battled back and neck injuries, and he’s only topped 50 innings twice in his career. Now, this knee flare-up is the latest addition to his medical file.

Kittredge’s ZiPS projections were compiled before he landed on the IL, as FanGraphs projected the O’s reliever to put up 57.1 IP in 2025.

While most of the counting stats are probably out of reach, Kittredge could still meet his rate-based projections depending on the extent of his time on the IL.

57.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 8.17 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9, 3.95 FIP, 1.19 WHIP

A reliever’s strikeout rate is usually closely correlated to their success, and Kittredge’s strikeout numbers have been somewhat inconsistent across his career.

In his best years in Tampa, he hovered around 10 K/9. Last year in St. Louis, his strikeout numbers dipped to 8.5, though he maintained an elite chase rate and an above-average swing-and-miss rate.

Whether he can beat the 8.17 K/9 that FanGraphs projects for him will go a long way in determining his usefulness for Baltimore once he’s healthy.

The case for the over

Kittredge’s familiarity with the AL East should give him a leg up when his knee is ready to go. He has a career strikeout rate of at least 8.9 against the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays. The AL East also is not chock full of players great at hitting sliders.

Kittredge will have to be wary of leaving his breaking ball over the plate to the likes of Aaron Judge, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Alex Bregman, but most of the O’s rivals struggle to hit sliders.

Kittredge will also have the added benefit of a less stressful role with the Orioles. For most of his career, he’s been his team’s main setup man, with more than half of his career appearances coming in the eighth inning.

The presence of Cano means Kittredge figures to be used more in the 7th inning and before. The lack of pressure to come back from injury and pitch in the most stressful spots may help Kittredge return and dominate.

The case for the under

While it’s easy to hope that Kittredge will come back from injury and be an important cog in the O’s bullpen, it’s also easy to imagine that this injury could derail his season.

When Kittredge came back from Tommy John in 2023, he posted only 10 Ks in 11.2 innings for a 7.7 K/9. This knee injury will presumably leave less of a lasting impact than Tommy John. However, Kittredge will be 35 by the time he makes his Orioles debut and his less-than-stellar medical history might make this return from the IL that much harder.