The New York Yankees were dealt a sobering blow in the World Series, looking completely outclassed against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Now a consequential offseason arrives, defined by the looming free agency of four-time All-Star Juan Soto. The presumed third-place vote-getter in AL MVP voting, Soto’s next contract could sneak beyond Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million high-water mark.
That alone is enough to send the Yankees front office into a complete panic. Several teams will mount competitive offers for Soto, who offers unique offensive firepower and longevity at 26 years old. The cross-town New York Mets are frequently cited as the favorites to pry Soto out of the Bronx, while the Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, and Dodgers all loom as viable landing spots, too.
Now New York has another top star to deal with in free agency. Gerrit Cole has officially opted out of his contract, worth $144 million over the next four years, to become a free agent.
BREAKING: New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole opted out of his contract, sources tell me and @JeffPassan. The Yankees can void the opt-out by adding one year and $36 million to the four years and $144 million that Cole had remaining on his deal.
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) November 2, 2024
The Yankees face what is ostensibly a binary decision. Let Cole walk, or pay him $180 million over the next five years by tacking on $36 million and a 10th year to his historic contract. At this point, it’s clear what the Yankees should do. Cole is among the very best pitchers in the MLB and his contributions to New York’s success have been immense. That said, with Soto’s supermassive contract on the horizon and several more affordable pitchers available in free agency, we could see the Yankees bid farewell to a key contributor.
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It would’ve been much easier for Cole to opt in, but the Yankees will deal with the consequences of his potential departure. Forking over $36 million in Cole’s age-38 season does not sound ideal, but you’re paying for upfront production. If Cole has a couple more Cy Young-level seasons in the tank, the Yankees can stomach an overpay in his waning years.
That said, after years of dependability, Cole floundered this season. He was limited to 17 regular season starts due to injury and his production wasn’t always up to his (extremely lofty) standards as a result. Cole put together a strong postseason, including four no-hit innings in New York’s Game 5 loss to LA in the World Series, but the seeds of doubt were planted. Just enough to complicate the Yankees’ decision here.
There’s a world in which Cole opts out, hits the market, and re-signs in New York on a more favorable contract, but that feels far-fetched. Cole wouldn’t opt out if he didn’t believe more substantial offers were on the table. Pitching has never been in higher demand and several big-spending contenders would trip over each other to put an offer sheet on Cole’s desk first.
The Yankees can’t really afford to let Cole walk, but slotting in $180 million over the next five years and handing out $700 million-plus to Juan Soto could be a tall task for a front office that spent all season talking about cutting costs.
Don’t blame Yankees fans for starting to think about potential replacements. Blake Snell was connected to the Yankees last season. Max Fried is up for grabs. Roki Sasaki could provide ace-level value on a minor-league contract. There are avenues to replace Cole, or at least to paper over the bottomless void left by his absence.
Let’s see how it all unfolds. Apologies to Yankees fans, but there won’t be much time to de-stress after a bitter World Series loss.
