The Chicago Cubs enter 2025 as the consensus favorites to win the National League Central, thanks to the addition of Kyle Tucker and a general lack of offseason spending by their division counterparts.
While it should be a given considering the team’s many resources and big-market status, this is a new feeling for some in the organization. Expectations haven’t been this high since 2019, when the Cubs were coming off a 95-win season that ended with a collective offensive drought from their core players and a wild-card-round loss to the Colorado Rockies.
Cubs President Jed Hoyer correctly stated in camp that being division favorites doesn’t mean anything, which is exactly what you’d expect him to say. Entering the final year of his contract, the onus is on Hoyer to win now.
“You continue to get better every year, every year our projections (have gotten) better,” Hoyer said. “I hope we can continue to do that year after year. I don’t think this is the top of something. We’re still on a climb, but getting to a place where our projections are good and playoff worthy is an accomplishment, though it doesn’t matter. All that matters is what happens when you start playing.”
Confirmed. The Cubs start playing on March 18 in Japan, when we’ll see how they stack up to the defending world champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the two-game Tokyo Series before continuing spring training in Mesa, Ariz.
Hoyer’s offseason game plan had its hits and misses, like most teams, but he provided manager Craig Counsell with what appears to be a stronger bench and a more reliable bullpen, along with a dominant offensive player in Tucker. The misses were prominent because they fed into the narrative that the Cubs don’t act like a team that will do anything to win.
Hoyer failed to sign closer Tanner Scott, who wound up with the Dodgers, and Alex Bregman, who went to the Boston Red Sox. But he quickly pivoted from Scott to Ryan Pressly as closer, acquiring the 36-year-old from the Astros. Instead of Bregman, he handed the third base job to rookie Matt Shaw, who was sidelined with an oblique injury early in camp and is only starting to get at-bats.
Cody Bellinger was dealt to the New York Yankees in an apparent salary dump that Chairman Tom Ricketts insisted was repurposing money, though we’ve yet to see where the savings have been invested. Otherwise, it’s mostly the same lineup as in 2024, and the same Big Three in Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon.
“We took it as a real challenge, this offseason,” Hoyer said. “We knew we had certain constraints, and (asked) ‘How do we work within those constraints to continue to get better at the same time?’ Only time will tell if we’re successful, but I feel good about what we’ve accomplished during this offseason.”
Among those constraints were Ricketts’ mandate to avoid going over the luxury tax, and the no-trade clause of Seiya Suzuki, who eventually was not traded and will be used as the primary DH.
“Winning an offseason always has a curse connotation to it,” Hoyer said. “I’m glad our team is held in high esteem, but ultimately all that matters is what happens when you start playing.”
Hoyer was repeating himself, which happens when you’re over 50. I can relate.
Needless to say, if the Cubs hope to live up to those expectations, the revamped bullpen has to do its job. Building a consistently reliable bullpen has not been one of Hoyer’s strengths since taking over as Cubs president after the 2020 season.
Cubs relievers blew 18 out of 40 save opportunities in the first half of 2024, effectively ending their chances of staging a second-half run. The Cubs wound up with 26 blown saves overall and eventually waved goodbye to struggling relievers Adbert Alzolay, Héctor Neris, Drew Smyly and others.
Last year’s pen was a revolving door of veterans and kids, from José Cuas to Keegan Thompson. It included a trio of swing men in Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski and Jordan Wicks, all of whom were sidelined with injuries. Wesneski was eventually dealt to the Astros in the Tucker trade, while Brown and Wicks are back competing for jobs again.
The only reliever back from last year’s opening-day bullpen is Julian Merryweather, who missed most of 2024 with a rib fracture and underwent patellar tendon debridement surgery on his right knee in September.
Rookie Porter Hodge performed well in his audition over the final weeks after the Cubs released Neris in August, but Hoyer chose to go with experience in the closer’s role, so Hodge will likely settle into a setup role along with Tyson Miller, 37-year-old Ryan Brasier and whoever gets hot in the early going.
Pressly is a former closer who was demoted to a setup role with the Astros after they signed Josh Hader in the 2023-24 offseason. He had mixed results: Pressly’s eight blown save tied for second among major-league relievers, behind Clay Holmes’ 13 with the Yankees.
In an age in which managers gravitate toward power pitchers with upper-90s fastballs in ninth innings, Pressly has been losing some steam on his four-seamer. Its velocity averaged 93.9 mph in ’24, which ranked 108th among qualified relievers, and was a couple ticks down from 2018, when he averaged 96 mph. Pressly averaged 9.21 strikeouts per 9 innings last year, his lowest mark since 2017, and ranked 81st among qualifying relievers.
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Age and workload obviously factor in, and Pressly can still be an effective closer, as he was during a four-year stretch in Houston from 2020-23. But there was a reason the Astros replaced him with Hader, Counsell’s former closer in Milwaukee who averaged 13.3 strikeouts per 9 in 2024. Strikeout artists rule.
Still, Pressly’s experience and ability to get outs with his secondary pitches should help ease Counsell’s anxiety level in late-inning situations. It couldn’t be worse than watching Neris’ constant struggles.
“Look, bullpens, I firmly believe they change as the season goes, so it’s hard to know exactly what’s going to happen,” Counsell said. “But certainly with the experience a guy like Pres has, it’s obviously comforting.”
Pressly has made only three appearances this spring, covering 2⅔ innings. But that’s where the Cubs want him to be, even as the team prepares to fly to Japan on Tuesday for two exhibitions and then the season-opening series against the Dodgers.
“It doesn’t have to be a lot (of work), and there is consideration, absolutely, like saving it for the season when you’re a (36-year-old) reliever,” Counsell said. “That makes sense too.”
The Cubs will go from games that don’t matter to games that do and then back again to games that don’t.
It’s going to be an interesting ride, and it’s just around the corner.
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