If healthy, Senga should haunt batters once again.
Unfortunately for Kodai Senga, a 2024 season that held so much promise got off to a late start due to injury. And after working so hard to come back, it derailed again in heartbreaking fashion when he sustained a calf injury in his only start of the season.
The good news for the Mets is that when he made his debut in July against the Braves, Senga looked like the dominant Kodai Senga from his rookie season—despite missing so much time. He pitched into the sixth inning and struck out nine Atlanta batters while giving up just two runs. The Mets won that game 8-4, and in a year where every win mattered, that one start did have an impact on the season.
After Senga missed the Wild Card series, Carlos Mendoza surprised everyone when he announced that the righty would start Game 1 of the NLDS against the Phillies. His postseason debut could not have gotten off to a worse start when Kyle Schwarber hit a very long home run off of him to start the game. After that, though, Senga settled down and looked like himself in two innings of work. He didn’t allow another hit and struck out three in the team’s 3-1 win over the Phillies. There were some questions at the time whether this was the correct move since the team needed to heavily rely on their bullpen for the rest of the game, but it was still an encouraging start for the ace.
Senga’s start against the Dodgers in the NLCS was less encouraging. Perhaps it was asking too much from Senga to start in the NLCS against a stacked team. It was disastrous. He never seemed comfortable on the mound and gave up six runs in three innings. He hit a batter and also walked six. That was his last outing of the year in what was a mixed season. To his credit, despite all the injuries, he stayed with the team and was supportive of them despite not contributing to the fun on the field.
Looking ahead to the 2025 season, Senga joins a rotation with Sean Manaea, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas. The team also has Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, and José Buttó as depth pieces and might opt to use a six-man rotation. If Senga is fully healthy and can recapture his rookie form, he could be the ace of a staff with quite a lot of potential.
This also causes a quandary for Mendoza and the organization if they do go with a six-man rotation. The Mets were very careful with Senga his rookie season, and they might want to go that route yet again in an effort to keep their starters healthy. Of course, David Stearns could have one more trick up his sleeve and acquire a top-of-the-rotation pitcher like Dylan Cease, but for now the team will have some decisions to make this spring.
When Senga is on, his ghost fork is one of the nastiest pitches in the league, and it should haunt batters plenty this year. The Mets are going to need him if they want to overcome a Dodgers team that got even better over the offseason with the addition of Roki Sasaki.
Steamer projects Senga to have a 3.77 ERA in a 162.0 innings pitched with 9.73 K/9 and 2.6 fWAR in 2025. ZiPS is a little less bullish and projects him to pitch only 138 innings with 9.70 K/9 and a 3.51 ERA, which would be worth 2.1 fWAR this season.
Senga is an easy guy to root for and is fun to watch when he is healthy. Here’s hoping that he spends far more time on the mound in 2025 than he did in 2024.
