Most baseball prospect rankings rate catcher Drake Baldwin as the top prospect in the Atlanta Braves farm system. The Athletic’s Keith Law agreed.

But when The Athletic’s David O’Brien named the Braves prospect most likely to have an impact in 2025, he left little doubt that it would be right-handed pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver.

“There’s no questioning the stuff of Smith-Shawver, but so far the Texan hasn’t put together a sustained stretch of crisp pitching to keep a spot on the major-league staff. Perhaps that would’ve happened last year, when he was brought up and pitched 4 1/3 scoreless innings in a May 23 start at Wrigley Field in his season debut. But he strained an oblique that day, was shelved six weeks, then pitched erratically after coming off the IL. Still, when the Braves needed an emergency starter for the Wild Card Series due to injuries, they turned to Smith-Shawver — stuff tends to be a deciding factor in such decisions,” wrote O’Brien.

“He might get his best opportunity this spring when the Braves will be without Spencer Strider in the early weeks of the season and will give some starts to pitchers they believe are best suited to helping them win. They will also plug in starters to help get extra rest for the rotation regulars.”

It’s not a shock O’Brien chose Smith-Shawver as his Braves prospect “most likely” to impact the 2025 season. Part of his reason is the current need Atlanta has in its starting rotation. Max Fried and Charlie Morton departed in free agency, and the Braves haven’t added any notable free agent pitcher to replace them.

Baldwin will likely have a chance to carve out a role for the Braves in 2025 as well. But with Sean Murphy in front of him at catcher, it’s not as probable Baldwin contributes significantly.

Obviously, either prospect making a big impact on the 2025 campaign would be terrific. But if it is Smith-Shawver earning a regular role in the starting rotation, the Braves could be set up to experience another strong season on the mound.

The Braves’ biggest weakness going into Spring Training is arguably their pitching depth. If Smith-Shawver emerges as a reliable MLB starter, though, that depth will be a lot less concerning.