The Atlanta Braves rotation, as currently constructed, is very good. Here are the numbers for each of their top 6 pitchers in their last season with at least 60 IP:

(If you are on a mobile device, this table is best viewed in landscape mode.)

Strider, of course, is returning from the internal brace procedure he had on his elbow early last season. The timeline to return from this procedure is 9-12 months, and he had the surgery on April 13th, 2024. The Braves have stated that they plan to be cautious with him, so you can expect that he will likely take the full twelve months before returning to the mound. A full 12 month recovery timeline would put him back in the rotation very early in the season, by mid-April. Strider and Anthopoulos have both said he will have a mostly normal spring training, so there doesn’t seem to be a need to provide him with more than 12 months to recover unless they are hoping to suppress his innings for 2025 by slow-playing his return. If I had to venture a guess, Atlanta is more likely to suppress Strider’s innings by skipping a start here or there and using spot starters to provide extra rest rather than keeping him in Gwinnett for an extended period.

The problem is that there’s a case to be made for suppressing each of the other five pitchers’ innings in 2025.

After throwing more innings than he had in any season since 2017, Sale’s exceptional Cy Young season ended with back spasms and a missed postseason appearance. He reportedly would have been available for the NLDS, but he’s also dealt with a myriad of injuries over the past 7 years and is entering his age 36 season. ReyLó had a brilliant return to the starter’s role in 2024, but he also had a couple of injury scares, and the Braves probably don’t want to jump him from 135.2 IP to 180+ if they can avoid it. Schwelly was one of the biggest surprises in MLB, pitching to a 3.35 ERA and 3.29 FIP across 123.2 IP in the big leagues after making just two starts in Double-A and exhibiting a deep repertoire with effectively no red flags in his profile. But between the minors and Atlanta, he threw over 100 more innings than he had in any season of his collegiate or professional career, and the Braves definitely want to protect his young arm.

Between Gwinnett and Atlanta, Holmes threw 109.1 IP in 2-24, which was the first time he had crossed 100 IP since 2017, the last time he was used primarily as a starter. Even if he repeated his excellent 2024 performance, a jump to 160+ IP may not be in the cards. As for playoff legend Ian Anderson (who is out of options), he hasn’t pitched particularly well at any level since his iconic Game 3 performance in the 2021 World Series. He was actually demoted for performance in 2022, then wound up needing Tommy John surgery at the start of the 2023 season and only pitched 68 innings in the minors in 2024.

All that to say that a reliable innings eater to replace Charlie Morton would be a welcome addition to this group of pitchers. Skipping or pushing back starts for the top four would become much simpler if they had a workhorse that they could firmly depend on for 160+ mediocre innings. Kyle Gibson is the best example of someone like that who is still available – he’s pitched at least 165 innings in every full season since 2018, with a colorless but useful 4.40 ERA and 4.25 FIP in that time frame (he was at a 4.24 ERA and 4.42 FIP in 2024).

Like the late-career version of Charlie Morton that Braves fans have watched over the past three years, however, Gibson is not someone who inspires confidence against the top offenses in the league in October. He’s extremely helpful in getting you through a 162 game season, but contending teams would probably prefer to have him as a long-relief option in the playoffs rather than running him out there as your third or fourth starter.

For the Braves, he could be exactly that. Someone like Gibson (Andrew Heaney and perhaps José Quintana could also fit this category) would throw every 5th or 6th day for 6 months, which would presumably help to keep the other starters healthy. Then, that person would occupy a bullpen spot on the postseason roster in case of an in-game injury or blowout game in either direction. It’s even possible that one or both of Anderson or Holmes looks better on a per-inning basis than the Gibson-type and surpasses him in the depth chart. Regardless, Atlanta’s 4-man playoff rotation would be one of the most formidable in MLB with Sale, Strider, Schwellenbach, and López.

The problem with having a lights-out front four and then a bunch of depth options is that recent history tells us it is very unlikely that the team will reach the playoffs with all of their top starters healthy.

In 2022, rookie sensation Spencer Strider missed the final few weeks of the season and wasn’t built up enough to handle anything close to a starter’s workload by the time his turn came up in the NLDS. Max Fried also got extremely sick and lost about 15 pounds with a nasty stomach bug, leading to a significant decrease in velocity and a terrible start in Game 1. In 2023, Charlie Morton had a finger issue that led to Bryce Elder starting Game 3 of the NLDS. Fried also had a blister on his finger and landed on the IL to end the regular season, though he came back to make his NLDS start just like 2022. In 2024, the perfect storm of Chris Sale’s back spasms and a hurricane hitting Atlanta gave the Braves a critical doubleheader the day before the Wild Card series began, which led to the hilariously improbable situation of AJ Smith-Shawver starting the first game of the playoffs.

So, there’s an argument to be made for the Braves to use their 5th spot in the rotation on someone with upside – someone you don’t feel comfortable penciling in for 30 starts, but you do feel not-horrible about starting a playoff game. Max Scherzer might have been an example of this type of option before he signed with Toronto for $15.5M – he’s struggled with injuries in recent seasons and is now in his 40s, but he also continues to pitch pretty well when he’s on the mound. Clayton Kershaw could represent a similar option on the open market, but it seems highly unlikely that he will wear anything but Dodger blue in his career. One target I like in this category is Jakob Junis, who spent most of last year as a reliever but thrived in the stretch run out of the rotation, not unlike Atlanta’s own Grant Holmes. Junis carried a 2.69 ERA, 3.69 FIP, and 3.80 xERA in his 67 innings of work with Cincinnati.

Obviously, the Braves would love to add another starter who is capable of eating a ton of innings while delivering shutdown performances, like Dylan Cease or Sonny Gray. Based on the asking prices we’ve seen reported for Cease and some of the financial finagling they did on their recent contract with Michael King, Cease is probably staying in San Diego, at least to start the season. Gray, meanwhile, is making $25M in 2025 and $35M in 2026, which really shouldn’t be too rich for Alex Anthopoulos’s blood, but probably is. Pablo López might still be on the table if Minnesota is looking to cut payroll. If so, I sincerely hope his $21.75M per year over the next three seasons would not be a deterrent for the Braves front office. Luis Castillo and Jordan Montgomery and some others offer varying levels of intrigue when it comes to both covering innings and pitching at a high level.

For today’s exercise, let’s assume the Braves have to choose between the two. They can either get an unreliable arm who can pitch in the playoffs if healthy, or they can add a boring veteran who can help preserve the rest of the rotation by making 30+ starts and eating a ton of innings. Or, a third option — they can see what they have in Holmes and Anderson for the first half, see if any prospects make a leap, and reevaluate at the deadline.

Which option do you prefer?