For the Atlanta Braves, the annual release of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections is another reminder that, despite a turbulent 2024 campaign, they remain one of the premier teams in Major League Baseball.
Hope springs eternal every February as baseball’s long, grueling journey to October begins to take shape. For the Atlanta Braves, the annual release of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections is another reminder that, despite a turbulent 2024 campaign, they remain one of the premier teams in Major League Baseball.
PECOTA, a predictive model that has been both a friend and a foe to teams over the years, once again pegs Atlanta as a force to be reckoned with. The Braves are projected to finish the 2025 season with 92.5 wins and 69.6 losses, a mark that puts them atop the National League East with a 52.3% chance of winning the division. If that doesn’t pan out, PECOTA still gives them a 37.7% shot at a Wild Card, meaning there’s an even 90% chance that the Braves will be playing October baseball for the eighth consecutive season.
Sound familiar? It should.
Atlanta has established itself as a powerhouse in the National League, stacking up division crowns, making deep playoff runs, and securing a World Series title in 2021. And while this year’s projections aren’t quite as dominant as last season’s—when PECOTA had them winning 101 games and pegged them as World Series favorites—there’s little doubt that the Braves are once again one of the top contenders in baseball.
But if they want to reclaim their throne, they’ll have to go through some serious competition.
The East Runs Through Atlanta—But It Won’t Be Easy
PECOTA’s forecast suggests that the race for the NL East crown could be one of the tightest in baseball. The model has Atlanta finishing just three games ahead of the New York Mets, the second-closest divisional race in MLB. And lurking right behind? The Philadelphia Phillies, a team that has proven its October mettle in recent years.
The takeaway? The NL East remains one of the toughest divisions in the game, and if the Braves want to run it back, they’ll have to earn it.
Unlike previous years when Atlanta’s offensive firepower led the charge, pitching and defense are expected to be the backbone of their success in 2025. While PECOTA projects the Braves’ lineup to be third in runs scored within the division, it also forecasts that Atlanta will allow the second-fewest runs in the National League and the fourth-fewest in all of baseball.
That’s an impressive mark, especially considering the question marks surrounding the Braves’ rotation. With Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López, Bryce Elder, and 101 innings of Spencer Strider projected as the primary starters, there’s plenty of upside—but also plenty of concern. Sale’s health remains a question, Schwellenbach is unproven, and Strider, while dominant, is expected to be limited.
If there’s one area the Braves could still improve, it’s their starting pitching. But for now, PECOTA believes they’ll get enough from this group to contend.
Dodgers Set the Standard—Again
As strong as the Braves look, there’s one team that PECOTA sees as a cut above the rest: the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Coming off a World Series title, the Dodgers are projected to win a staggering 103.8 games, score the most runs in baseball, and give up the fewest. Their 97.7% chance of winning the NL West is nearly unprecedented, and their 100% chance of making the playoffs makes them the only team in the league with a guaranteed ticket to October—at least in the eyes of PECOTA.
Perhaps most daunting is their 20.7% chance of winning the World Series, more than double the next-closest teams, the Braves (9.7%) and Yankees (9.0%).
This isn’t new territory for Atlanta. They’ve battled the Dodgers in the postseason multiple times in recent years, including their unforgettable triumph in the 2021 NLCS. But if they want another parade down Peachtree Street, they’ll likely have to go through Los Angeles once again.
The Bottom Line
PECOTA is clear: the Braves remain an elite team. They’re one of the best in baseball, they’re still the team to beat in the NL East, and they have a legitimate shot at adding another championship banner to Truist Park.
But nothing comes easy in Major League Baseball. The Braves will have to outlast a tough division, solidify their pitching staff, and find a way to topple a juggernaut in Los Angeles.
