Why Patrick Mahomes Has Transitioned From Magician To Methodical

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – DECEMBER 10: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts with Josh … [+] Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills after the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on December 10, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

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Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the NFL.

Even though Lamar Jackson is going to likely win a third MVP, barely scraping past Josh Allen’s career year, and Joe Burrow has an argument that his numbers are more notable than both of theirs, they all still look up to number 15 in Kansas City.

While the debate of quarterback hierarchy is constantly debated on every Monday morning talk show, it is not every week that a quarterback with three Super Bowls and two MVPs, who only lost one start all season, has to be reiterated as the best at his position in the NFL.

However, when that same quarterback finished that same season below his career average in passing yards and passing touchdowns while up in interceptions, the questions are going to be asked.

Are these numbers reflective of Mahomes beginning to show signs of football mortality, or are they a strategic adjustment towards a more efficient brand of Chiefs’ football?

Mahomes’ 2024 season was not “bad” by any means. With 3,928 yards on a 67.5 completion percentage, and 26 touchdowns to 11 interceptions, Mahomes was amongst the league-leaders with a QB Rate of 93.5.

However, they pale in comparison to his per season averages since becoming a starter in 2018, which is 5,036 yards on a 66.5 completion percentage, 39 touchdowns to 11 interceptions per 17 games.

When these numbers are compared to the other QBs in NFL history to lead a team to a winning percentage north of .880, Mahomes’ metrics are also not to the normal standard.

In fact, Mahomes has the lowest QB Rate of the quarterbacks on this list since 1968, trailing the leader of the group Aaron Rodgers’ 2011 season by 29 points.

So, how could overall worse numbers from the best player at his position equate to more wins as a team? Have the Chiefs been better than they were in the last two seasons despite Mahomes regressing, despite each of those seasons ending in hoisting the Lombardi?

To answer this, we need to look into how the roster has been constructed over the past three years.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 21: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs takes the field … [+] prior to the AFC Divisional Playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium on January 21, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jason Hanna/Getty Images)

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When Mahomes agreed to his record-deal in 2020, that kept him in Kansas City for the steep price of 10 years and $450 million, Chief’s General Manager Brett Veach knew his job was about to become more difficult.

With deferments, the Chiefs were able to push the significant years of Mahomes’ cap hit until 2022.

In those two years, where Mahomes took up less than 5% of the team’s cap total, they were unable to win another Super Bowl, as issues at offensive and defensive line depth already began to become an issue.

From 2022 on, Mahomes’ contract became a much greater hurdle when constructing the team.

  • 2022: $35.8 million cap hit (17.19% cap percentage)
  • 2023: $37.1 million cap hit (16.52% cap percentage)
  • 2024: $37 million cap hit (14.49% cap percentage)

After the 2021-22 season, some obvious changes needed to be made to the roster to obtain cap space after Mahomes’ contractual jump. Those came in the ways of wide receiver Tyreek Hill via trade, linebacker Anthony Hitchens via release, and Tyrann Mathieu via free agency.

Kansas City was intentional with the assets they let go being positions that they could either add via the draft or by team-friendly deals in free agency. This strategy is easier said than done, and the inaccuracies of player substitutions on a Super Bowl-caliber team is normally what separates a great team from a dynasty.

This was precisely the crossroads the Chiefs were in, as they could have begun the downward trajectory of a team talented enough to win a Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback.

Instead, the Chiefs entered the distinction of dynasty, as they won the next two Super Bowls due mostly to their ability to draft and develop talent. In the next three drafts, Kansas City added the following players who are still starting in 2024.

  • CB Trent McDuffie
  • DE George Karlaftis III
  • RB Isiah Pacheco
  • S Bryan Cook
  • DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
  • WR Rashee Rice
  • OL Wanya Marris
  • DB Chamarri Conner
  • WR Xavier Worthy
  • OL Kingsley Suamataia
  • DB Jaden Hicks
  • OL Hunter Nourzad

All of these players not only filled the team needs on an affordable contract, but they allowed for the team to spend money on resources that first contract players cannot always fulfill. Veterans like Joe Thuney and Jawaan Taylor on the offensive line would not be possible without Morris or Suamataia adding to the position depth, or Pacheco and Worthy adding cost-effective options to Mahomes’ arsenal.

And while the offensive side of the ball was compiled in a cost-effective way, Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has allowed for the team’s defense to be ranked top-five in terms of points allowed, compiled mostly of homegrown talent.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 13: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass … [+] during the first half against the Miami Dolphins in the AFC Wild Card Playoffs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 13, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

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With Chris Jones being the only star of the defensive side of the ball, the Chiefs have constructed a well coached juggernaut, which has changed the focus of Mahomes’ offense. Why should he throw the ball more or take as many chances in the passing game, when they are not able to spend as much money on offensive weapons as they could on his rookie deal?

With a defense like Kansas City has, their best path to victory is by low scoring, mistake-free football, which is the reason for as many close contests as they have this past season.

While being their most effective path to winning football games, it has also prepared the team for the postseason, where close games are inevitable.

Now, when the Chiefs are in a close contest against a team of similar standing like the Buffalo Bills, they are not only hosting the game, but are battle tested for end of game scenarios, after going through it all season.

So, even though Mahomes has had his worst statistical season to this point, you would be hard pressed to find a fan who does not want him to have the ball at the end of the game, despite these numbers typically signaling a red flag.

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