We’re now less than a month away from full squads reporting for Spring Training, and Pete Alonso’s staredown with the New York Mets doesn’t seem to be any closer to a resolution than it was when the team very publicly washed its hands of its former first baseman last week. Alonso — and, just as importantly, his agent Scott Boras — sees himself as among the very best power hitters in the game, and would like to be compensated accordingly. The Mets, meanwhile, see a bat-only first baseman on the wrong side of 30 without a ton of suitors.

Right now, it’s clear that New York is winning this particular cold war. Alonso remains on the market, and the longer this saga goes on, the less likely it is that he finds another team willing to shell out the sort of nine-figure contract he expected at the start of the offseason. But that confidence appears to have gone to the Mets’ heads just a bit; playing hardball is all well and good, but the more New York twists the screws, the more obvious it is that they probably aren’t quite as willing to walk away as they’ve made it seem.

Mets’ Pete Alonso bluff isn’t particularly convincing

The latest update on Alonso and the Mets comes from MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, who describes New York as “sincere in their willingness to walk away” if the Polar Bear isn’t willing to accept something near the reported three-year, $70 million contract the team has offered. There’s no reason to think that DiComo is lying when he says that the Mets aren’t bluffing here. But his own description of the situation makes clear that the Mets’ bark is probably louder than their bite.

“Mets officials understand these dynamics. They’re also willing to play hardball because they’re not afraid of the alternative: a world in which Mark Vientos or someone else plays first base, and a world in which the Mets won’t be footing the bill as Alonso enters his mid-30s.”

With Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado no longer on the table and a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. trade little more than a pipe dream, though, that “alternative” isn’t nearly as attractive as it seems. Sure, Vientos looks like a rising star, one who would shine at first base or third base depending on whatever the team needs. But as for the someone else DiComo describes? Well, New York doesn’t really have an answer for that — and the longer this drags on, the greater the risk that the Mets enter the 2025 season with an Alonso-shaped hole in their lineup that will likely cost them in an arms race with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

If New York moves Vientos over to first, it’s staring at another year of the Brett Baty Experience at the hot corner. But if it keeps Vientos at third, then the best option at first base becomes … the recently re-signed Jesse Winker, who confirmed during his introductory press conference on Wednesday that he and the team have discussed the possibility of him moving to the infield.

No disrespect to Winker, who was an integral part of New York’s magical run to the NLCS last season, but this clip should be all the leverage that Alonso and Boras need. Winker is a great bench bat, perfect playing two or three times a week as part of a platoon wherever he’s needed. Rolling him out on a daily basis at first base, though, is a recipe for disaster, one that will drastically limit this lineup’s ceiling in 2025.

The Mets can rattle their sabers at Alonso all they want, and unless someone like the Toronto Blue Jays or San Francisco Giants step up in a major way, there isn’t a ton of urgency for New York to come back to the table. But the reality is that New York needs Alonso in 2025 as much as Alonso needs New York, no matter what the team tries to tell you to the contrary.