The Baltimore Orioles traded for Corbin Burnes with World Series aspirations. But that wasn’t the outcome, with the team suffering a second consecutive postseason sweep by their first opponent.

How does that affect Burnes’ free agency? Baltimore took a gamble on the former Cy Young winner, knowing that if they couldn’t sign him to an extension midseason, they risk losing him after just one year.

The World Series hasn’t kicked off yet, so things are largely quiet on the rumor mill. But there’s a sense of pessimism amongst the fanbase that Burnes will be on the mound at Camden Yards next year.

Largely, because of the kind of contract he can command this winter. Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter predicted Burnes to sign a seven-year, $255 million deal in an October 18 column.

“That number is a logical target for Burnes as a perennial Cy Young candidate and the top starting pitcher on the market, and if he prefers a long-term contract over a shorter deal with a higher AAV, he should be able to hit that mark,” Rymer wrote.

Burnes finished the 2024 season with a 15-9 record. He pitched 194.1 innings, threw 181 strikeouts, and allowed 22 home runs. There’s little doubt he’s earned his looming payday. But will the Orioles be the team to give it to him?

Corbin Burnes Non-Commital After Postseason Loss
Since arriving in Baltimore, Burnes has been insistent that he would he hit free agency, and beyond that; explore his options.

Following their first-round loss to the Kansas City Royals, he was non-committal when asked about free agency.

“We’ll see what happens,” Burnes said, according to MLB.com’s Jake Rill. “I haven’t thought much about what’s going on next. It’s going to be a crazy offseason, but still just trying to digest what happened. It was an early exit to what we thought was going to be a long run.”

In an August interview with Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Orioles ace explained what kind of team he’s looking for in free agency.

“I am going to have to do a lot of research this offseason of farm systems, young guys coming up, groups of core guys that are on a team,” Burnes told Sammon. “Where does it look like teams are going to be competitive? Where are teams just looking to spend some money to make the fan base happy? Whatever it might be.”

Baltimore seemingly checks all of those boxes, if you believe they can turn the corner next year and get their first postseason win since 2014.

Mike Elias Talks Corbin Burnes Free Agency

General Manager of the Orioles, Mike Elias, made an October 9 appearance on “The Show” with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman. When asked about Burnes’ free agency, he didn’t sound confident the ace will be back in Baltimore next year.

“He’s terrific and any team would love to have him, but there’s a lot of business that goes into that, and somebody accrues six years of service in the major leagues, they earn rights and we’re going to have to go through the entirety of what comes next when that takes place,” Elias said.

“There are steps this month that we’ll have to work through. He was spectacular for us for most of the season. He was spectacular in the playoffs. And he has a very bright future.”

Burnes is 29 years old, targeting the biggest payday of his career and best chance at winning a championship in free agency. It’s up to the Orioles front office to convince him that’s in Baltimore.