Maybe it was always a bit of a long shot for the Orioles to re-sign Corbin Burnes, but with the news now official that the righty is heading to Arizona on a six-year deal, Baltimore will have to find a creative solution to patch the hole atop the rotation.
There’s been a lot of speculation about how Mike Elias would approach this off-season, given David Rubenstein’s reported willingness to open the purse strings and increase the Orioles’ budget. Unfortunately, all of the top free agent starting pitchers are now off the table. If the O’s want to land a top-tier starting pitcher, they’ll have to do so via trade.
That’s all well and good, and if the O’s are able to land someone like Dylan Cease or Framber Valdez, that would be ideal. But it does take two to tango, and with both the Padres and Astros looking like competitors, those guys will cost a fortune.
There should be some other options on the trade market, however. Like Cease and Valdez, any of the Mariners arms will be expensive. But there are a couple guys, just outside of the true ace category, that would fit well in Baltimore’s rotation and help the Orioles push for a division title in 2025.
3 potential trade targets for the Orioles’ rotation heading into 2025
Even if the Orioles aren’t willing to part with a top prospect package to acquire an ace, there should be options on the market. A team like the Twins, in particular, have reportedly been looking to decrease their spending heading into 2025. The Pohlad family has even reportedly been exploring the idea of selling the franchise, in part due to the team losing its’ local TV contract in the Diamond Sports Group debacle. It’s possible the Orioles would be willing to take on some of that excess payroll in order to get a good pitcher in return.
There have been some rumors about the Twins being open to moving Pablo Lopez, who is due roughly $65 million over the next 3 seasons. He’s their second highest paid player, behind only Carlos Correa, but Lopez isn’t just dead money.
He pitched to a 4.08 ERA in 2024, but he hasn’t posted a FIP over 3.71 in 5 years. He has an above average strikeout rate, fanning 198 batters in 185.1 innings last year, and he’s about as durable as any pitcher in the sport right now.
If the Orioles are open to taking on 100% of Lopez’s contract, they might be able to get Derek Falvey and the Twins to part with Lopez for a group of controllable prospects that doesn’t include someone like Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo.
If Mike Elias prefers to deal with someone he’s more familiar with, Dave Dombrowski of the Phillies is just a phone call away. The two sides have made multiple deals in the past and with Philly having just acquired Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins, along with the expected return of top prospect Andrew Painter, their starters are going to be fighting for playing time.
That could leave Ranger Suarez as the odd man out, given that he’s on an expiring contract. Suarez is expected to earn about $8 million in his final year of arbitration before hitting the free agent market next winter. He’s not quite an ace, but did pitch to a 3.46 ERA with a 23.2% strikeout rate in 150.2 innings last year. He’s also one of the better pitchers in the sport when it comes to limiting hard contact.
Like Lopez, Suarez wouldn’t cost the Orioles any of their top 3-4 prospects but is still someone who could come in and give the O’s strong innings alongside Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin. That trio would put the Orioles in a really good spot for 2025.
If all else fails, the O’s could call up the Pirates and ask about Mitch Keller. While the Bucs are almost certainly not moving either of Paul Skenes or Jared Jones, Keller has been the subject of rumors since this past trade deadline.
The Pirates inked Keller to a 5-year, $77 million contract extension then immediately saw rumors about their intent to trade him. Though Keller isn’t a top of the rotation arm at present, he’s someone who could slot in behind Rodriguez and Eflin as a pretty solid number 3.
Over the past 2 seasons, Keller has thrown a combined 372.1 innings, pitching to a 4.23 ERA with a 3.93 FIP and 376 strikeouts. Keller is still just 28, so the Orioles wouldn’t be locked into the deal into Keller’s mid-30’s, and they’ll almost certainly be able to get more out of him than the challenged Pirates’ development team. Plus, if the Orioles eat the money, the Pirates will likely give him away at a steep discount.
None of these guys are the most exciting options on the market, but all three are viable solutions to the Orioles’ current problem.
All three are likely to be within the O’s price range, and would provide some much needed rotation depth to a team that just watched its ace walk out the door.