Welcome to the last Friday in 2024 at your late week, late night coffee shop. We’re selling boozy coffee or a little cafecito if that’s what you prefer. We’ve got excellent wine, mocktails and all the Cubs banter a fan could ask for to kick off the weekend right. Just be sure to bus your tables so we don’t leave a mess for Josh on Monday.

It’s been a blustery snow-filled day here visiting my family, so I had a lot of time to peruse the newest ZiPS projections for the Cubs.

However, first, let’s listen to some music.

Last weekend on Saturday Night Live I was reminded of an absolutely great holiday tune I hadn’t heard in ages when Hozier performed a cover of Fairytale of New York:

This is a pretty exceptional cover of an excellent 1988 song from The Pogues:

It was a lovely tribute for an Irish duet that is one of the few Christmas songs I actually want to listen to over and over:

It was Christmas Eve babe
In the drunk tank
An old man said to me, won’t see another one
And then he sang a song
The Rare Old Mountain Dew
I turned my face away
And dreamed about you

Got on a lucky one
Came in eighteen to one
I’ve got a feeling
This year’s for me and you
So happy Christmas
I love you baby
I can see a better time
When all our dreams come true

It’s a classic song that is a real twist on the traditional Christmas Carol. Sung through the lens of a man who’s wound up in the drunk tank on Christmas Eve…although, maybe a lot carols are just tales of a life on Christmas:

They’ve got cars big as bars
They’ve got rivers of gold
But the wind goes right through you
It’s no place for the old
When you first took my hand
On a cold Christmas Eve
You promised me
Broadway was waiting for me

You were handsome
You were pretty
Queen of New York City
When the band finished playing
They howled out for more
Sinatra was swinging
All the drunks they were singing
We kissed on a corner
Then danced through the night

The boys of the NYPD choir
Were singing Galway Bay
And the bells were ringing out
For Christmas day

You could easily sing this song about Chicago, Philadelphia or Boston — all great sports cities.

Meanwhile, the ZiPS projection loves the Cubs? Like might be more excited about this year’s Cubs team as currently assembled than it has been in ages. But don’t take my word for it, take Dan Szymborski’s word for it, courtesy of FanGraphs:

To get this out of the way, ZiPS absolutely adores Chicago’s lineup, from top to bottom and every which way around. ZiPS and the Cubs have been on the same page before — the projections for Shota Imanaga last winter had me proclaiming that his deal was the offseason’s best signing — but the projections haven’t been this high on the lineup since the team’s World Series contention days. Now, a lot of that is defense, with Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong each having elite defensive projections. But there’s a lot of bat in there as well, with six starters projected for a 100 OPS+ or better, and two of the three who aren’t — Swanson and PCA — bolstered by their aforementioned defense.

Indeed, the system’s love for the Cubs was so intense that, as with the 2023 Diamondbacks (a team ZiPS absolutely drooled over), I made sure to double-check that something funny wasn’t going on by projecting the team using an older version of ZiPS. Much like Arizona two years ago, there was basically no change (0.2 WAR). The happy-Cubs effect has gotten stronger since the start of the winter, with the organization jettisoning a number of players ZiPS wasn’t high on (Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes), while adding a player who ZiPS has always liked (Kyle Tucker) and finding more playing time for Matt Shaw, who projects to be a decent starter right now. ZiPS even likes Gage Workman, who was picked up in the Rule 5 draft. It’s a smaller move, but while the computer isn’t optimistic about his bat, it had him as one of the best defensive third basemen in the minors.

This is all high praise from Dan for the team’s hitters. I mean, you had me at “World Series contention days.” But it’s worth noting the picture isn’t quite so rosy for the pitchers:

On the flip side, ZiPS is much less excited about the pitching staff, especially the rotation. Since the computer was already enthusiastic about Imanaga, it sees him about the same as it did last winter, and it likes Justin Steele just fine. But once you get past the top two and Matthew Boyd, who ZiPS really digs despite the injuries given his strong stretch run, it’s a rather “meh” set of projections, full of serviceable-at-best pitchers with ERAs fancied up by the team’s defense. ZiPS believes that Javier Assad can continue to beat his FIP by more than the defense contributes, but with a 4.48 FIP projection, you’re not going to see a projected ERA in the 3.00s, even with the adjustment.

No lies detected on the rotation piece. And really you should read Dan’s whole write-up to see the highest and lowest end projections.

Don’t get me wrong, I want to believe in this set of projections. As you can see by this graphic, courtesy of Eephus League:

FanGraphs

It is indeed a pretty solid set of projections for the Cubs. The comparison to both the Cubs World Series contenders and the 2023 Diamondbacks team that was in the World Series should not be looked at lightly. Those are all excellent teams and the 2025 Cubs appear to already be in some pretty good company with room in the budget to spare for another starting pitcher or reliever.

I admit it has me dreaming of playoff games rather than sugar plums.

But I ask you, Cubs fans, do you agree with the optimistic picture painted by ZiPS for the Cubs batters in 2025? I find myself agreeing with the offensive picture and just pleading with Hoyer and Company to use the room left in the cap to add some arms and really storm the division. What say you?