The Mets’ rotation isn’t splashy on paper, but Stearns deserves the benefit of the doubt

The New York Mets followed their unlikely run to the NLCS by making the biggest splash of the offseason in signing superstar Juan Soto to a whopping $765 million deal. It was a signature move for club president David Stearns, but this wasn’t a team that was in the position of being one player away — even though Soto is one of the biggest needle-movers in Major League Baseball.

Specifically, the Mets needed to attack the pitching market. With Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea hitting free agency, that was over 90 starts worth of 2024 work the Mets were losing heading into 2025. Plus, promising youngster Christian Scott won’t be back in 2025.

The Mets seemed to complete their pitching additions Monday in bringing back Manaea. They had previously added Frankie Montas and former Yankees closer Clay Holmes, who will convert to a starting role.

There were many who believed heading into the offseason the Mets would be in high-profile free agent starters like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell.

Burnes is still available, so there’s always the possibility that Stearns and owner Steve Cohen will surprise us and grab him to bolster the staff. My hunch is, though, that Stearns is betting on himself and his organization.

There’s good history here.

Stearns was in the Astros’ front office from 2013-15, helping to put the infrastructure in place that helped make Dallas Keuchel into a Cy Young winner in addition to helping build players like Lance McCullers Jr. and Collin McHugh. Charlie Morton once glowingly spoke about how the Astros’ helped him grow as a pitcher (he was there after Stearns left, but it was the same system).

From Houston, Stearns was hired to take over baseball operations for the Brewers for the 2016 season. With Milwaukee, Stearns oversaw the development of success stories like Jimmy Nelson and Freddy Peralta. The Brewers acquired and got the absolute most out Chase Anderson and Wade Miley (twice, in his case). Jordan Lyles had the best run of his career there. Burnes (who was traded to Baltimore before his date with free agency) and Brandon Woodruff emerged from the Brewers’ system under Stearns. Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer found success as starters.

Stearns similarly hit big with the Mets’ rotation last season. Both Severino and Manaea were one-year lottery tickets.

Severino started more than 20 games for the first time since 2018 and had a quality season.

Manaea had been terrible and then bad in his previous two seasons. With the Mets, he resurrected his career and even got down-ballot Cy Young votes (he finished 11th). It was arguably the best season of his career. In his last 20 starts, he was 9-3 with a 3.05 ERA.

Simply, it seems that Stearns has confidence at this point — rightfully — that he can build a pitching staff without going crazy for long-term, big-money deals in free agency. Though no executive under Cohen should ever feel limited in budget, it seems that in not spending huge on starting pitching, there’s plenty of money to use for the offense. The Mets have already done so with Soto and perhaps there’s more coming in the form of an Alex Bregman and/or Pete Alonso signing.

Even if not, Stearns has the track record that should inspire confidence from Mets fans. Did you know the Mets ranked 12th in rotation ERA last season? They were fifth in rotation ERA after the All-Star break and first among NL teams. That was without Kodai Senga — the man who was supposed to be their ace — nearly all season.

Let’s also keep in mind how often pitching, especially those with a ton of mileage on their arms, break down. It isn’t difficult to surmise that Stearns might believe it isn’t worth the risk to go long-term with pitching and instead would prefer to find gems in the bargain bin.

The rotation now certainly has its question marks, but there’s also upside. Let’s break it down.

Mets’ projected 2025 rotation

• Sean Manaea – In 2024, Manaea was on his fourth team in four years. We saw his upside down the stretch and now he’s got some continuity with the front office and coaching staff. It’s a good bet that he’ll at least repeat and maybe even exceed his 3.0 WAR from 2024.
• Kodai Senga – He was great in 2023, his first season stateside, but then only managed 5⅓ regular-season innings in 2024 due to multiple injuries. He’s a frontline starter if healthy and given the 166⅓ innings in 2023, it’s reasonable to think he has the chance to get to around 175 in 2025. If he does that, he’s a All-Star and maybe even Cy Young contender.
• Frankie Montas – He’s been injured or inconsistent since 2021, but he has the type of arm and track record that Stearns has rescued before (see all those Brewers examples above). At age 32 and with only 150⅔ innings of work last season, there shouldn’t be much concern that this will be a waste.
• David Peterson – Prior to 2024, Peterson had a career 4.51 ERA. In 2023, his ERA was 5.03. Last season? Peterson pitched to a 2.90 ERA. In August and September, he was 5-2 with a 2.41 ERA.
• Clay Holmes – He hasn’t started since 2018 and only has four career MLB starts. He has long had a starter arsenal, though, with a sinker, slider and sweeper (presumably he’ll throw his fourseam fastball more as a starter, too). Unless Stearns’ front office saw something in his stuff that they truly believed would work as a starter, they wouldn’t be doing this. Trust should have been earned by now, so I wouldn’t doubt Holmes’ ability to work as a starter.
• Griffin Canning – A former second-round pick out of UCLA and a top-70 prospect back in 2019, Canning just never really panned out for the Angels. Now ask yourself a simple question: How often do you hear about great success stories with pitchers in the Angels’ organization? Compare that to Stearns’ track record. If Canning has anything in that arm, it’ll get found now.
• Paul Blackburn and Tylor Megill provide depth, too.

That rotation might not look splashy on paper, but Stearns has been fielding rotations better than they look for almost a decade now. Again, just look at what was a patchwork rotation last season. He should have earned himself the benefit of the doubt on this front.