As the World Series wraps up, the New York Mets are gearing up for a pivotal offseason, kicking off with crucial decisions regarding qualifying offers for their impending free agents. The qualifying offer stands at a record $21.05 million for 2025, and the Mets, deep in consideration, have a five-day window post-World Series to make their moves. Players receiving offers have until November 19 to decide if they want to stick around for another season in the Big Apple.

Historically, players rarely accept these offers—only 13 of 131 have taken them since the system’s inception in 2012. The stakes are particularly high for the Mets.

If a player turns down the offer but signs elsewhere, the Mets will land a valuable draft pick between the fourth and fifth rounds, thanks to their luxury-tax-paying status. With 12 free agents on the table, let’s delve into how the Mets might navigate their choices.

Undeniable Yes: Pete Alonso and Sean Manaea

First up on the ‘must-keep’ list is first baseman Pete Alonso and left-hander Sean Manaea, provided Manaea declines his $13.5 million player option. These two have cemented themselves as hot commodities entering free agency.

Alonso, despite a bit of a quieter regular season, reminded everyone of his power in the postseason, edging closer to Darryl Strawberry’s all-time Mets home run record. As for Manaea, at 32, he’s had a transformative season—focusing on his sinker and sweeper, combined with adjusting his arm angle, has seen him rise to ace status in Queens with impressive numbers.

For the Mets, the risk of losing these star performers for nothing is mitigated by the compensation draft pick, making an offer a smart play if talks stall.

It’s Complicated, But Probably Yes: Luis Severino

Luis Severino took a shot at redemption with the Mets after a rough stretch with the Yankees in 2023. With a $13 million ‘prove it’ deal, Severino rebounded significantly, finishing the season strong. As he eyes a longer-term deal, the question is whether the market will meet his expectation for years or surpass that $21.05 million average annual value.

Opting to remain in a setting where he’s found comfort might be the safer bet for Severino, even if it means the Mets slightly overpay. The Mets’ financial flexibility and need for starters make this a plausible path. However, should Severino reject the offer and sign back, the Mets would face draft pick consequences, adding a layer of complexity to their decision-making process.

No-Go Area: Several Players

There’s a group where a qualifying offer just doesn’t align with the market dynamics—players like Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Jesse Winker, and José Quintana, among others, fall here. Declining these offers doesn’t close the door on future dealings; it’s simply a nod to the reality that these players won’t hit the $21.05 million mark in the free market.

José Quintana, despite solid numbers in 2024, is turning 36 and seeks another short-term stint in the league. Similarly, J.D.

Martinez, who has previously settled for less, and Jesse Winker, who came cheap earlier, fall into this bucket. With Bader seeing reduced playing time and internal prospects like Drew Gilbert eyeing centerfield, the Mets have options without breaking the bank.

The Mets are navigating a critical offseason, balancing immediate competitiveness with long-term strategy—key decisions await that could shape the franchise’s future trajectory.