The Baltimore Orioles invested heavily to acquire Shane Baz in the offseason, signaling their belief that he could be a cornerstone of their starting rotation for years to come. That commitment was further solidified when the Orioles extended Baz’s contract one day into the 2026 season, locking him up for the next five seasons. With a long runway to develop into the pitcher the organization envisions, expectations are high—but after five starts, the reviews have been mixed.

As noted by commentator Connor4Real, Baz’s performances have shown flashes of brilliance, but there are still areas in need of refinement.

Electric Stuff, But Command Woes Persist

It’s easy to see the upside with Baz. His fastball explodes out of his hand at 98 mph with a seemingly effortless delivery, a stark contrast to the parade of soft-tossing right-handers Baltimore has relied on in recent years.

When he locates his knuckle curve effectively, it’s a devastating strikeout pitch that can completely neutralize hitters.

In short, Baz possesses the raw tools to be a fearsome starter. The challenge lies in harnessing that arsenal consistently. His four-seam fastball command has been inconsistent from start to start, forcing him to rely on his cutter more often than ideal. While effective in moderation, the cutter lacks the upside of his blazing fastball, and left-handed hitters have punished it when overused.

The knuckle curve, meanwhile, is only as effective as its placement. When Baz misses his spots, opposing hitters capitalize, leading to extra-base hits and a rising ERA. Walks from poor fastball command combined with misplaced curveballs are a dangerous mix, which partially explains why Baz’s ERA sits above five through five starts.

Flashes of Consistency

Despite these struggles, Baz’s outings are far from complete disasters. In his debut against the Twins, he gave up four runs in the second inning but then settled in to pitch into the sixth without allowing another run. Against the Pirates, only one inning produced damage, and against the Guardians, a two-run homer came on the third batter faced, after which Baz delivered four scoreless innings.

A pattern emerges: most of Baz’s runs and walks occur early, followed by adjustments that stabilize his performance. He hasn’t been chased from any start or suffered a blow-up outing, consistently making it through at least five, often six innings. The issue appears to be preemptive: Baz hasn’t always identified which pitch will be problematic until the damage is done.

Struggles Against Left-Handed Hitters

Left-handed hitters have particularly tormented Baz this season, slashing .373/.438/.567 against him. This is directly tied to his command issues, as his two go-to pitches against lefties—the four-seam fastball and knuckle curve—have been inconsistent, while the cutter cannot compensate effectively.

For Orioles fans, there’s reason for optimism: historically, Baz has performed better against left-handed hitters than right-handed ones. Adjustments are likely needed, including better knuckle curve location and increased usage of his changeup, which was his second-most-thrown pitch to lefties last year.

Minor Adjustments Could Yield Major Results

Pitchers rarely abandon pitches without reason. Baz’s changeup has reportedly shown less movement this season compared to last, which may explain why he’s hesitant to throw it to lefties as frequently. Still, considering that his current approach hasn’t yielded success, revisiting the changeup could be worthwhile.

Beyond pitch selection, Baz may also need a bit of luck. His 3.71 FIP is more than a full run below his ERA, and batters are experiencing unusually high BABIP numbers against him. This suggests that some of the damage he’s allowed is due to factors outside his control, such as batted ball luck.

The Vision for Baz in the Orioles Rotation

Despite early struggles, the potential is undeniable. Baz’s combination of velocity, strikeout capability, and secondary pitches offers the Orioles a middle-of-the-rotation starter with ace upside if minor adjustments are made. A little luck and refinement could see him stabilize command, particularly early in games, and become the reliable force the Orioles envisioned when signing him to a long-term deal.

If Baz can improve fastball command, locate his knuckle curve more consistently, and incorporate his changeup more effectively against left-handed hitters, the “Wizard of Baz” nickname might not be far off. For a team that has struggled with rotation consistency in recent years, Baz offers a chance to anchor the staff for the foreseeable future.

Conclusion

Shane Baz’s 2026 season may not be perfect so far, but there is every reason to remain optimistic. His outings show glimpses of brilliance, his ERA is inflated relative to underlying metrics, and he has proven he can settle into games after shaky starts. The Orioles’ investment and belief in Baz as a long-term solution is justified.

With minor adjustments and a bit of fortune, Baz could transform into the pitcher Baltimore envisioned when they signed him to a five-year contract. Fans can take comfort in knowing that the talent is there—it’s just a matter of harnessing it consistently. The 2026 season may yet be the one where Shane Baz solidifies his role as a reliable, mid-rotation force in the Orioles’ rotation, perhaps even earning the moniker “Wizard of Baz” along the way.