BCB After Dark: Who would you want to take the most important Golden At-Bat for the Cubs?

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As Al and our gracious host here at BCB After Dark, Josh, have already detailed this week there was a new potential rule rumored out there in MLB called the Golden At-Bat. While there are a variety of possible parameters and permutations on this rule the idea is essentially that once per game a team would be able to send it’s best hitter to the plate to take an at bat, out of order.

I want to be very clear at the outset of this post that I think the Golden At-Bat rule might be one of the worst ideas that Rob Manfred and Co. have ever had and yes, I know how many bad ideas they’ve had, I curse their names every time I see a Manfred Man on second to start the 10th inning and I don’t imagine that’s going to change anytime soon. This post should not be interpreted as an endorsement of said rule, which I would gladly set on fire and banish from baseball conversation if I could.

That said, I’m an old debate coach so I am used to living in lands of hypotheticals and switching sides to test out ideas. So this week I found myself asking: if MLB were silly enough to deploy a rule that is obviously ridiculous on its face, who in the vast history of the Chicago Cubs would fans want to take the most important Golden At-Bat?

First, though, some golden oldies…

One of the earliest music videos was Toto’s Hold the Line. It’s a pretty iconic late 70’s song, but the music video nugget is interesting, because MTV was still three years away when Toto decided to do this:

There’s nothing fancy about this other than the part where it’s a music video at all in a time where no one really had a platform for disseminating that video. Think back to what you were doing in 1978, 79, 80? How would you even have seen this video without it being on one of the 4-13 channels you had that you probably could only change by standing up, walking to the TV and turning the manual dial on it to whatever else you thought might be on that day?

The song itself is interesting beyond the signature piano riff at the top. I doubt it will surprise readers that that riff apparently inspired the whole song, but once it was in David Paiche’s head, it was an obsession for days. When the words “Hold the line, love isn’t always on time” came into his head late at night he basically wrote the whole song in two hours.

I know that feeling. Sometimes a story I want to write for this site is practically fully formed in my head before I sit down to write it. I’ll be out walking around, or see something in a game and just know what it’s supposed to say and how to get there. Other times I’ll have a glimpse of an idea and it struggles to ever gain traction and words. Al can attest that I have far too many stories in draft mode for months if not years.

Inspiration is a funny thing.

The song itself uses the phrase as a reference to someone begging a love interest to stay in a rocky relationship, but the actual etymology likely stems from military maneuvers. I admit the first image that pops into my head from this phrase is Theoden from the Lord of the Rings, but I’m pretty sure he actually says ‘reform the line” not “hold the line.”

Regardless of proper usage of the phrase in pop culture it seems clear that releasing Hold the Line and having it debut near the top of the charts was a game changer for Toto.

When Hold the Line was released in September 1978 the Cubs were managed by Herman Franks and on their way to a 79-83 season. They finished third in the NL East and started September two games over .500 and facing off against the Astros. This was their lineup on September 1:

Greg Gross (CF)
Rodney Scott (3B)
Bill Buckner (1B)
Dave Kingman (LF)
Bobby Murcer (RF)
Manny Trillo (2B)
Dave Radar (C)
Iván De Jesús (SS)
Mike Krukow (P)

And while my gut instinct was that no one in that lineup is on any of our lists for the Cubs all-time Golden At-Bat. Well, read on — who SHOULD take that at bat?

I’m me, so I started at FanGraphs and decided to peruse some leaderboards. I also decided for the purpose of this exercise to limit the sample to players who had at least 1,000 at bats in a Cub uniform, I didn’t want any sample sizes under two solid Cubs seasons. My apologies to Topsy Hartsel and his excellent 1901 single season with the Cubs where he put up a 155 wRC+ but, well, there are lines. After that, it was a matter of sorting and searching and imagining.

I sorted by wRC+, a league and park adjusted stat for a player’s ability to contribute runs to the game. It’s normed off 100, so that’s always average, with every higher number being that number percentile better than average and every number lower being that percentile worse than average.

You can see the top 25 Cubs below and honestly it pained me to cut it off at 25 with the Sarge, Gary Matthews sitting at 26. I considered going all the way to 50, solely because Willson Contreras is 46th all-time on this list and Mr. Cub himself, Ernie Banks, is 47th, but, well, I had to hold the line:

All-Time Cubs wRC+ Leaders

Name	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Name	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
Rogers Hornsby	317	1320	58	245	264	3	12.50%	7.88%	.254	.348	.350	.435	.604	.461	158	16.6
Hack Wilson	850	3719	190	652	769	34	12.45%	12.40%	.267	.330	.322	.412	.590	.444	151	33.7
George Gore	719	3306	24	772	380	23	10.38%	5.32%	.119	.329	.315	.386	.434	.378	141	29.8
King Kelly	681	3072	33	728	480	53	7.45%	5.83%	.137	.329	.316	.367	.453	.375	138	24.5
Frank Chance	1274	5066	20	794	590	400	10.78%	5.82%	.098	.304	.297	.394	.395	.385	137	48.1
Ray Grimes	400	1674	27	255	248	21	11.77%	7.17%	.159	.348	.331	.418	.490	.419	137	11.4
Bill Madlock	400	1662	31	210	202	35	8.42%	6.02%	.138	.342	.336	.397	.475	.393	137	11.1
Dave Kingman	345	1317	94	193	251	9	7.97%	21.72%	.291	.287	.278	.338	.569	.390	136	7.1
Kris Bryant	833	3626	160	564	465	38	11.58%	23.77%	.229	.336	.279	.378	.508	.377	136	30.5
Hank Leiber	282	1106	48	153	199	2	10.85%	12.21%	.202	.297	.291	.374	.492	.394	135	6.2
Billy Williams	2213	9504	392	1306	1353	86	9.59%	9.83%	.207	.293	.296	.364	.503	.381	134	58.9
Sammy Sosa	1811	7898	545	1245	1414	181	10.10%	22.98%	.285	.307	.284	.358	.569	.388	134	60.7
Bill Nicholson	1349	5614	205	738	833	26	12.40%	12.18%	.199	.282	.272	.368	.471	.391	134	37.7
Cap Anson	2276	10112	97	1719	1879	247	9.41%	3.06%	.117	.335	.329	.395	.446	.395	134	81.8
Babe Herman	262	1072	30	142	177	7	7.93%	11.94%	.199	.317	.296	.353	.495	.384	133	6.1
Riggs Stephenson	978	3964	49	533	589	39	9.96%	4.44%	.134	.344	.336	.408	.469	.404	132	25.6
Anthony Rizzo	1308	5639	242	721	784	62	11.07%	15.45%	.217	.286	.272	.372	.489	.368	131	32.7
Derrek Lee	924	4021	179	578	574	51	11.14%	17.93%	.227	.328	.298	.378	.524	.386	131	22.3
Chuck Klein	263	1096	46	168	171	7	9.49%	8.58%	.200	.291	.297	.366	.497	.390	130	7.3
Seiya Suzuki	381	1614	55	203	193	31	10.16%	24.78%	.192	.347	.278	.354	.470	.354	129	8.7
Ron Santo	2126	8979	337	1109	1290	35	11.93%	14.16%	.193	.293	.279	.366	.472	.371	128	71.9
Kiki Cuyler	949	4195	79	665	602	161	8.39%	8.82%	.160	.346	.325	.391	.485	.398	127	29.3
Ralph Kiner	264	1134	50	161	160	3	13.32%	13.84%	.220	.295	.284	.381	.505	.399	127	4.6
Aramis Ramirez	1124	4705	239	651	806	8	7.93%	12.28%	.237	.291	.294	.356	.531	.377	126	25.7
Gabby Hartnett	1926	7132	231	847	1153	28	9.69%	9.58%	.193	.305	.297	.370	.490	.390	126	52.7

Select stats, at least 1000 plate appearancesFanGraphs

This is a fun list for a slew of reasons. There are Hall of Famers on this list, and who would have guessed that you could do a lot worse than 1978’s cleanup hitter, Dave Kingman, as your choice for a single Golden At-Bat? Bryzzo is on this list, because of course Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant should be in the conversation as the best hitters in the history of the Cubs. They delivered that elusive ring. Sammy Sosa, whose 545 home runs in a Cubs uniform leads the franchise until future notice is on this list whether you like how he got there or not. The lone single active Cub on this list (as of writing time) is Seiya Suzuki who just edges out Ron Santo. And 24th, but certainly not least, is my original gut instinct for my answer to this question: Aramis Ramírez. Fun fact, the lead image for this piece was my first smartphone lock screen and it didn’t change for years.

I could have just stopped there, but as I was perusing wRC+ leaderboards and playing around with playing time limits (and therefore history) I remembered there is also a stat on FanGraphs called “clutch”. Now, while I have some concerns about the validity of this stat (which you can, and should read more about), I also just couldn’t fathom finishing this column without a nod to a stat that is seemingly built for the explicit purpose of the Golden At-Bat.

For those who are unfamiliar with clutch, it’s basically a measure of Win Probability Added (WPA, which you are hopefully familiar with from the long running and excellent Heroes and Goats series) and Leverage Index to create a measure of how well you perform with the game on the line.

So with that, I present the top 25 Cubs hitters all-time with at least 1000 PA according to FanGraphs by clutch, and honestly, I’ve rarely seen a more clear answer to a statistical question:

All-time Cubs Clutch Leaderboard

Name	WPA	-WPA	+WPA	WPA/LI	Clutch
Name	WPA	-WPA	+WPA	WPA/LI	Clutch
Mark Grace	37.35	-129.69	167.04	29.29	7.16
Jerry Morales	4.26	-56.03	60.29	-0.66	4.39
Nico Hoerner	2.97	-35.86	38.84	0.16	2.88
Aramis Ramirez	22.94	-82.13	105.08	19.51	2.81
Larry Biittner	0.68	-34.46	35.14	-1.91	2.49
Darwin Barney	-3.82	-35.89	32.07	-5.88	2.10
Jerome Walton	0.55	-21.90	22.46	-1.43	2.00
Anthony Rizzo	29.74	-87.32	117.06	28.33	1.95
Jose Vizcaino	-1.28	-18.36	17.08	-2.97	1.70
Doug Dascenzo	-1.50	-20.55	19.05	-3.15	1.68
Bob Dernier	0.70	-29.00	29.70	-0.64	1.35
Shawon Dunston	-3.86	-92.91	89.05	-4.80	1.15
Luis Salazar	-0.43	-21.42	20.99	-1.49	1.09
Steve Buechele	1.38	-22.59	23.97	0.31	1.03
Scott Servais	-0.63	-27.59	26.96	-1.51	0.91
Alex Gonzalez	-0.74	-23.39	22.65	-1.67	0.89
Bill Buckner	6.67	-72.72	79.39	5.54	0.79
Jose Cardenal	6.32	-38.77	45.09	4.90	0.76
Rick Monday	7.85	-31.08	38.93	6.50	0.76
Chris Coghlan	2.27	-17.22	19.48	1.64	0.64
Kosuke Fukudome	2.67	-32.00	34.67	2.06	0.61
Alfonso Soriano	7.01	-68.63	75.64	6.23	0.59
Bobby Murcer	3.20	-26.07	29.27	2.45	0.50
Bill Madlock	8.25	-28.12	36.37	7.34	0.35
Derrick May	0.26	-25.58	25.84	-0.09	0.33

WPA and Clutch stats for Cubs w/ at least 1000 PAFanGraphs

My original gut instinct for this post, Aramis, is much higher on this list. A lot of guys who aren’t anywhere near the first list appear here (like hello, Nico Hoerner!) but Mark Grace just jumps off the page.

He’s actually 13th all-time by clutch for players with at least 1000 PA (yes, really.) This is not a soft list. It headlined by Tony Gwynn and includes Pete Rose, Ichiro Suzuki, Dave Parker, and yes, Mark Grace. Interestingly, this clutch leaderboard is like a who’s who of guys who rarely struck out and had a knack for hitting .300.

With a clutch score of 7.16 Grace is orders of magnitude better in high leverage situations by clutch than anyone else in the history of the franchise. Now, it’s worth noting a few things that may give readers pause about just trusting clutch and moving on. First, not all players have WPA and LI stats in FanGraphs so there is a generational blind spot here that doesn’t exist with wRC+. Second, before you start praying to the Bible of Clutch, here are the bottom five Cubs with at least 1000 plate appearances and the requisite WPA/LI stats on that list in order:

80. Kyle Schwarber — clutch -4.66

81. Michael Barrett — clutch – 5.09

82. Ryne Sandberg — clutch -5.28

83. Willson Contreras — clutch – 6.88

84. Sammy Sosa — clutch – 14.09

Say what you will about the three true outcomes but there is no world where those are the worst five hitters with at least 1,000 PA in the history of the franchise. There is clearly something being measured by clutch that is generational and I’m going to be thinking about that for a while. But that’s why BCB After Dark is here, to ponder these things and debate them out as Cubs fans. So I ask you, who would you want to take the most important Golden At-Bat in the history of the franchise for the Cubs and why?