The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 offseason facing enormous pressure, and ESPN has added even more heat to the narrative by making a bold prediction: quarterback Dak Prescott will win the 2026 NFL MVP award, despite the franchise’s two-year playoff drought and a roster loaded with complicated financial challenges.

Prescott, who continues to be one of the league’s most productive passers, remains at the center of every conversation surrounding Dallas’ attempts to return to contention, especially with the Cowboys desperately needing to retain their top offensive weapons and repair a defense that finished dead last in points allowed during the 2025 season.

The team’s priorities are clear: re-sign wide receiver George Pickens after his breakout year, rebuild a defense that collapsed under mounting injuries and inconsistent play, and find ways to navigate more than $25 million in cap overages as the new league year approaches.

Even so, ESPN analyst Matt Bowen believes Prescott’s production, leadership, and offensive stability will elevate him above the rest of the league’s quarterbacks, predicting that he will ultimately claim the most prestigious individual award in the sport next season.

Bowen highlighted Prescott’s consistency, citing his 4,552 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and 67.3% completion rate in 2025 as indicators that the veteran quarterback remains capable of producing elite numbers regardless of surrounding instability.

He added that retaining Pickens—likely through the franchise tag—will allow Prescott to maintain momentum in an offense that remains explosive at its best and systemically efficient when its top playmakers are healthy and properly utilized.

Prescott has been in the MVP conversation several times during his career, including in 2023 when he finished second in voting after leading the league with 36 touchdown passes and carrying the Cowboys to one of their strongest regular seasons in the past decade.

Even during down years, the quarterback has consistently surpassed major statistical thresholds, eclipsing 4,400 passing yards in four of the last seven seasons and earning four Pro Bowl selections—numbers that reinforce why analysts continue to view him as an MVP candidate.

Beyond Prescott’s individual play, the Cowboys still boast several cornerstone talents, including wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, running back Javonte Williams following his new three-year deal, tight end Jake Ferguson, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, and defensive back DaRon Bland, all of whom form the backbone of a roster capable of contending—if it can stay healthy and consistent.

This blend of offensive firepower and defensive potential is part of why national analysts remain optimistic about Dallas’ ceiling, even if the team’s inability to win in high-pressure situations has repeatedly derailed postseason aspirations during the Prescott era.

Dallas collapsed at the end of the 2025 season, losing four of its final five games and falling out of playoff contention in a late-year spiral defined by untimely turnovers, offensive stagnation, and defensive lapses against both elite and inferior opponents.

In Week 14’s pivotal matchup against the Detroit Lions, Prescott threw two interceptions, took five sacks, and watched a potential season-saving win disappear in a 14-point loss that effectively shifted momentum away from the Cowboys’ playoff hopes.

This inconsistency in critical games remains a major roadblock in Prescott’s quest for the MVP, as the award often hinges not only on statistical dominance but also on a quarterback’s ability to deliver wins in defining moments throughout the season.

Yet, despite his mixed postseason résumé, Prescott remains one of the league’s most technically refined quarterbacks, excelling in accuracy, pre-snap reads, and command of the offense—traits that frequently resonate with MVP voters when paired with team success.

Bowen’s prediction suggests that if Dallas can field even a moderately improved defense and retain the offensive stability around Prescott, the quarterback’s statistical output should remain elite enough to put him directly in the MVP race from Week 1 onward.

But for that to happen, the Cowboys must overcome the offseason’s most pressing financial challenge: being more than $25 million over the salary cap, a situation that will likely require restructures, renegotiations, and the release of several veterans.

If the Cowboys can retain Pickens and maintain continuity at the top of the depth chart, Prescott will enter the season with one of the most dynamic receiver duos in the league, pairing Pickens’ physicality and deep-ball dominance with Lamb’s elite route-running and separation.

Such a tandem would give Dallas the type of offensive versatility needed to carry an imperfect defense and put Prescott in position to generate the high-volume passing numbers historically necessary to win the MVP award.

Still, the biggest obstacle to an MVP campaign is not Prescott himself but the Cowboys’ longstanding inability to consistently win close games and overcome late-season adversity, issues that have plagued the franchise through multiple coaching staffs and roster cycles.

Prescott’s critics will point to the postseason failures and costly late-season turnovers as reasons to doubt his MVP candidacy, arguing that talent alone cannot compensate for the absence of signature moments in meaningful games.

However, his supporters counter that football remains the ultimate team sport, and expecting one player to overcome poor defensive play, limited roster depth, and cap-related offseason restrictions is unrealistic, especially in a conference as competitive as the NFC.

For Prescott to win MVP, the Cowboys must win—and win often—likely requiring at least 11 or 12 victories, a division push against the Philadelphia Eagles, and an offense that maintains its potency from start to finish.

Much of that hinges on the moves Dallas makes in the coming weeks, with the franchise tag deadline, free agency decisions, and cap restructuring all looming over an offseason that could redefine the Cowboys’ trajectory for years to come.

If Dallas delivers stability, Prescott could deliver production; if Dallas delivers defensive help, Prescott could deliver wins; and if it all comes together, ESPN’s prediction of a Prescott MVP season might become far more realistic than critics believe.

Until then, the Cowboys remain a team filled with talent, weighed down by inconsistency, and driven by a quarterback who will once again enter the season with sky-high expectations—expectations that could finally culminate in the NFL’s highest individual honor.